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OSW Commentary | | Marek Menkiszak

Sometimes it is better not to talk Pitfalls of potential dialogue between Europe and Russia

In recent weeks, discussions have intensified regarding the possible resumption of dialogue – including at the highest political level – between the European Union, its Member States, and the Russian Federation. This debate has unfolded in…
OSW Commentary | | Agata Łoskot-Strachota

Excessive dependence The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market

Since 2022, the EU has undergone a rapid transformation of its natural gas and crude oil import mix. Faced with Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, now in its fourth year, and the Russian-European economic war, the EU has almost…
OSW Commentary | | Bartosz Chmielewski

The economies of the Baltic states recession stagnation and acceleration

The economies of the Baltic states have in recent years experienced a series of shocks, triggered by the global pandemic and the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Nearly four years of turbulence have led to a reshaping of regional…
Analyses | | Piotr Szymański, Bartosz Chmielewski, Marek Menkiszak

Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace a test of NATOs unity

On 19 September, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace above its territorial waters in the Gulf of Finland, remaining there for 12 minutes at a depth up to 10 kilometres. The aircraft were detected, intercepted, and…
Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Piotr Szymański

Consequences of the discontinuation of the Baltic Security Initiative by the Trump administration

On 5 September, citing an anonymous White House source, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 (1 October 2025 – 30 September 2026) does not envisage continued funding for the…
OSW Commentary | | Piotr Szymański

NATO summit in The Hague Trumps return and a two-component 5 of GDP on defence

The NATO summit in The Hague (24–25 June) – the first chaired by new Secretary General Mark Rutte – was minimalist in both form and content. It concluded with a record-low five-point declaration. This approach to a meeting of NATO heads of…
OSW Commentary | | Bartosz Chmielewski

The Kaja Kallas era Estonias high-profile diplomacy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine served as a catalyst for Estonian diplomacy. The narrative of a country of one million people on the periphery of the European Union, warning of the real threat posed by Russia, has become one of the most…
OSW Commentary | | Joanna Hyndle-Hussein

Baltic de-risking the Baltic states sever energy ties with Russia

On 9 February, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia synchronised their electricity networks with those of continental Europe (CESA), using the overland interconnector LitPol Link between Ełk in Poland and Alytus in Lithuania. The three countries…
Analyses | | Bartosz Chmielewski

Estonia Michals new centre-right government

On 25 March, the Estonian parliament passed a vote of confidence in Kristen Michal’s new government. The previous cabinet, comprising representatives from the Reform Party, Estonia 200, and the Social Democratic Party, had been in place…
OSW Report | | Agata Łoskot-Strachota

Energy policy in times of war and transition. Priorities of the Central and Eastern European countries and Germany

Since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the effective implementation of three key energy policy objectives has gained importance: ensuring energy security alongside the EU’s ambitious climate agenda, maintaining…