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Analyses | | Joanna Hyndle-Hussein, Kamil Kłysiński

Belarusian balloons prompt emergency situation in Lithuania

On 9 December, the Lithuanian government declared a nationwide emergency due to the threat to civil security posed by Belarusian smuggling balloons, which have been active for the past two months. These balloons are being directed into…
Analyses | | Bartosz Chmielewski

Latvias governing coalition is falling apart a dispute over the Istanbul Convention

On 5 November, under pressure from public opinion and the president, the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) decided to suspend further proceedings on the bill proposing Latvia’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention (on preventing and combating…
Analyses | | Joanna Hyndle-Hussein

Lithuania closes its border with Belarus for a month

On 29 October, the Lithuanian government decided to close the country’s two remaining open border crossings with Belarus – at Medininkai and Šalčininkai – until 30 November. The restrictions, which apply to both passenger and freight…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski

Mutual attacks on border energy infrastructure Day 1322 of the war

Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski

The Russians are surrounding Siversk Day 1315 of the war

Analyses | | Joanna Hyndle-Hussein

Lithuania new Social Democrat government

On 25 September, the Lithuanian parliament (Seimas) swore in the government led by Social Democrat Inga Ruginienė and approved its agenda. The new cabinet is supported by a coalition of three parliamentary groups: the Social Democratic…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski

President of Ukraine announces the creation of Assault Forces Day 1308 of the war

Analyses | | Piotr Szymański, Bartosz Chmielewski, Marek Menkiszak

Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace a test of NATOs unity

On 19 September, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace above its territorial waters in the Gulf of Finland, remaining there for 12 minutes at a depth up to 10 kilometres. The aircraft were detected, intercepted, and…
Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Piotr Szymański

Consequences of the discontinuation of the Baltic Security Initiative by the Trump administration

On 5 September, citing an anonymous White House source, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 (1 October 2025 – 30 September 2026) does not envisage continued funding for the…
OSW Commentary | | Piotr Szymański

NATO summit in The Hague Trumps return and a two-component 5 of GDP on defence

The NATO summit in The Hague (24–25 June) – the first chaired by new Secretary General Mark Rutte – was minimalist in both form and content. It concluded with a record-low five-point declaration. This approach to a meeting of NATO heads of…