The Coalition of the Willing on security guarantees for Ukraine: less ambitious, more concrete

On July 10, another meeting of the over 30-member Coalition of the Willing was held in virtual format to discuss post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, including the potential deployment of support forces. This coalition operates under the leadership of France and the United Kingdom. For the first time, representatives from the United States took part, including General Keith Kellogg.

The Coalition of the Willing has finalised the command structure for future stabilisation forces in Ukraine (Multinational Force Ukraine) and outlined areas of military support for Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire agreement with Moscow. The post-meeting communiqué suggests that the coalition’s engagement in the land domain would remain limited. It refers primarily to efforts aimed at regenerating Ukraine’s military potential through logistical support, armament and military equipment deliveries, and the deployment of military instructors on Ukrainian territory. In contrast, the coalition would play a more prominent role in the air domain by supporting Ukraine’s Air Force through air policing intended to help create the conditions necessary for the resumption of civilian air traffic. At sea, the coalition would contribute to ensuring safe navigation to and from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. This would include sea mine clearing activities. The lead role here would be played by Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, building on their trilateral Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group, established in 2024, with support from personnel of other coalition members (see ‘Rumunia, Bułgaria i Turcja w regionie Morza Czarnego: więcej współpracy?’).

In addition, France and the United Kingdom will establish new permanent multinational headquarters, headed by a three-star general, to coordinate tactical and operational aspects of a potential mission. The headquarters will rotate annually between Paris and London. Should Western forces be deployed to Ukraine, a co-ordination cell (the HQ’s forward element) will also be set up in Kyiv, led by a British two-star general.

Despite the lack of prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the countries of the Coalition of the Willing continue to plan a stabilisation mission while maintaining military support for Kyiv. The emergence of new information about the command structures and tasks of a potential operation is accompanied by greater caution regarding the presence of Western troops on Ukrainian territory, who would likely perform auxiliary and training roles.

Commentary

• The ambitions of the Coalition of the Willing regarding military involvement in Ukraine following the cessation of hostilities have clearly diminished. Due to differing positions among coalition members on deploying their own troops, the recognition of limitations in European military capabilities, and the United States’ reluctance to participate in any such mission, the coalition has concluded that the most viable way to safeguard Ukraine’s sovereignty is by strengthening its defence potential. As recently as March and April of this year, one of the options considered for Western engagement involved the deployment of tens of thousands of ground troops behind the front line. At that time, there were extensive discussions about the mission’s mandate, including the possibility of ceasefire enforcement, meaning military engagement on the Ukrainian side if Russia resumed aggression. However, following the coalition meeting, no new information emerged, and no further debate on such a scenario has taken place (see ‘Deployment of a European reassurance force in Ukraine: a political or military measure?’).

• The establishment of separate headquarters for a potential mission in Ukraine is intended as a signal that Paris and London are prepared to take a leading role and are capable of fulfilling their earlier commitments regarding the deployment of stabilisation forces when the conditions allow. The multinational HQ of the Coalition of the Willing will be based on the Franco-British structures – the Combined Joint Force (CJF). As set out in the bilateral declaration of 10 July (see ‘France and the United Kingdom: the beginning of bilateral coordination of nuclear deterrence’), it is to achieve the capability to command corps-size forces of up to 50,000 troops. The CJF will be a multidomain structure (land, air, maritime, cyber, and space) and open to integration with forces contributed by other countries. However, it will not be assigned exclusively to Ukraine, as its purpose is to strengthen security in the broader Euro-Atlantic context.