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Analyses | | Wojciech Górecki

Armenia a non-binding pledge to leave the CSTO

… unequivocally and openly critical since the war with Azerbaijan in the autumn of 2020, and especially since … handover of four villages in Tavush province to Azerbaijan; the protesters have been calling on the … of society. They could also provoke Russia (and/or Azerbaijan) to step up political or military pressure on …
Analyses | | Krzysztof Strachota

The Iranian issue as the cause of intensified tensions in the South Caucasus

… of the intensifying conflict over Iran. Tehran accused Azerbaijan of helping the Israel’s Mossad in killing the … the Iranian nuclear programme (on 11 January), whereas Azerbaijan allegedly foiled attacks on the Israeli … the Israeli embassy was thwarted (on 13 February). In Azerbaijan arrests of the members of the alleged Iranian …
Analyses | | Aleksandra Jarosiewicz

The Southern Caucasus is turning into a Russian playground

… of the upcoming presidential elections in Georgia and Azerbaijan (October) and the fact that another stage … feeling: suggesting it could back the opposition in Azerbaijan, generating tension in the energy sector (the … vs. Russia   The actions taken by Russia are seen in Azerbaijan as hostile and posing a threat to the …
Analyses | | Wojciech Górecki

A serious crisis in Armenian-Russian relations

… subsequently unwilling or unable to respond to Azerbaijani attacks on Armenian positions – not only in … The prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh in a unitary Azerbaijan ’ ). Disillusioned by this stance, Yerevan … ad hoc political assistance in the confrontation with Azerbaijan. The European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) …
Analyses | | Aleksandra Jarosiewicz

Elections in Armenia – the burden of the governing partys victory

… the defeat in the so-called ‘Four-Day War’ with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016 and the … for launching the process of normalising relations with Azerbaijan and ease the widespread frustration among the … some of the territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This scenario is difficult to implement due …
Analyses | | Mariusz Marszewski

A belated division of the Caspian Sea

… all five coastal countries (Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) adopted a framework … and the BTE gas pipeline were put into operation, and Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia set the borders of … Trans-Caspian gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan (at present, the implementation of this …
Analyses | | Wojciech Górecki

Armenia a contested success for Pashinyan

… more than seven months after the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. The defeat has … the unstable situation in the south of the country and Azerbaijan's increasing attempts to unilaterally … Republic during the victorious first war with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Criminal cases are …
Analyses | | Marcin Popławski

Turkmenistan is looking for new export destinations as its contract with Russia ends

… to Iran and Uzbekistan, and updated its agreement with Azerbaijan. Details of the agreement with Tehran have … to sanctions by Washington. Sales of Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan are also set to increase (from 4.5 mcm to …
Analyses | | Rafał Sadowski

Progress in integrating the South Caucasus countries with Europe

… agreements with Armenia on 27 February, and with Azerbaijan on 1 March. In its conclusions on 27 … and intellectual property protection. In the case of Azerbaijan, which cannot begin DCFTA negotiations as it … fair elections. The very high levels of corruption in Azerbaijan and Armenia are also negative factors, as is …
Analyses | | Wojciech Górecki, Krzysztof Strachota

Post-war reckoning Political crisis in Armenia

… The autumn defeat in the war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh triggered a deep … On the brink of a disaster The defeat in the war with Azerbaijan (27 September – 10 November 2020) came as a … to this point – namely the victory in the 1994 war with Azerbaijan. It has also made some cracks in the myth of …