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Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Piotr Szymański

Consequences of the discontinuation of the Baltic Security Initiative by the Trump administration

… House source, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration’s budget proposal for fiscal year … US armament and equipment to their militaries. The Trump administration intends the discontinuation of BSI … and other NATO members on the eastern flank that the Trump administration continues funding the European …
OSW Commentary | | Piotr Szymański

NATO summit in The Hague Trumps return and a two-component 5 of GDP on defence

The NATO summit in The Hague (24–25 June) – the first chaired by new Secretary General Mark Rutte – was minimalist in both form and content. It concluded with a record-low five-point declaration. This approach to a meeting of NATO heads of…
Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Lidia Gibadło

United States planned reduction of the US military presence in Germany

… forces in Germany appear to be a response by President Trump to the stance and criticism of European allies … withdraw troops from Germany remains unclear. President Trump presents it as retaliation for criticism of US …
OSW Commentary | | Bartosz Chmielewski

Latvias bitter success a state locked in a cycle of polarisation

… who styles himself as a local version of Donald Trump. The weakness and strength of executive power … country, [18] which gained renewed momentum when Donald Trump began his second presidential term in the United … electorate from forming an alliance with the ‘Latvian Trumpists’, fearing a loss of influence over the …
OSW Commentary | | Agata Łoskot-Strachota

Excessive dependence The growing role of US LNG and oil in the EU market

… trade, and energy policies under President Donald Trump, as well as by certain US actions viewed by the EU … factor is that the key objectives of President Trump’s energy policy include expanding hydrocarbon … pressuring partners into taking actions favoured by the Trump administration, have raised questions about …
Analyses | | Piotr Szymański, Bartosz Chmielewski, Marek Menkiszak

Russian fighter jets in Estonian airspace a test of NATOs unity

… aim to test allied responses, particularly that of the Trump administration. They form part of a calculated … has been no response from the United States. President Trump avoided commenting, citing insufficient … the US reaction and appears to believe that the Trump administration is not prepared to respond …
OSW Commentary | | Wojciech Konończuk

Year three of the war Russias hopes for victory and a crisis in transatlantic relations

… has brought a significant political shift with Donald Trump assuming the US presidency on 20 January 2025 and … due to a two-and-a-half-hour conversation between Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda, held on 17 April in New York. Shortly after this meeting, Trump posted on social media: “Ukrainian survival and …
Point of View | | Łukasz Maślanka

The patchwork defence union. Shifts in the EU’s security policy following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

… could shift depending on the policies of the Donald Trump administration. This paper puts forward a …
Analyses | | Łukasz Maślanka

Sovereign yet forward-oriented towards Europe the evolution of Frances nuclear deterrence doctrine

… of the United States towards its allies during Donald Trump’s first and second terms, the ‘European dimension’ …
Analyses | | Maria Domańska, Piotr Żochowski, Witold Rodkiewicz

Major East–West prisoner exchange

… suggested that Moscow would prefer to see Donald Trump as the US leader. This shift may suggest that the Kremlin fears Trump’s unpredictability and is no longer confident that …