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Analyses |
| Sławomir Matuszak
The growing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine observed in recent weeks are exacerbating the country’s economic problems. On 14–19 February, Russia conducted military exercises which closed off a large part of the Sea of Azov and the…
Analyses |
| Piotr Żochowski
The situation in the occupied part of eastern Ukraine has significantly worsened in recent days. On 18 February, the self-proclaimed authorities of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR & LPR), which are fully…
Analyses |
| Andrzej Wilk
During a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on 14 February, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that some of the large-scale exercises of the Russian Armed Forces had ended, while others were close to completion. The next day, the…
Analyses |
| Kamil Kłysiński
On 1 February, the Lithuanian rail freight carrier LTG Cargo stopped transporting Belarusian potash fertilisers from the Belaruskaliy potassium company. Transit was suspended in connection with Vilnius’s decision to terminate the bilateral…
OSW Commentary |
| Justyna Gotkowska, Piotr Szymański
The NATO member states do not have a common position concerning sending arms supplies to Ukraine. In January, under increasing military pressure from Russia, it was the US, the UK, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and Poland which…
Analyses |
| Krzysztof Nieczypor, Tadeusz Iwański
In recent days, there has been a crisis in relations between Ukraine and Germany, caused by a series of actions by Berlin that impeded the transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian army in the face of a potential attack from Russia, as well as…
Analyses |
| Tadeusz Iwański, Krzysztof Nieczypor
In its public message, the government in Kyiv has cautiously assessed the threat of Russian aggression. It has, though, been simultaneously appealing to the West to increase military aid and to impose severe sanctions on Russia. The topic…
Analyses |
| Andrzej Wilk
In mid-January, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF)’s extremely intensive training activity, which has been observed for several weeks, was expanded to include new elements. Preparations have begun for a series of extraordinary…
Analyses |
| Piotr Żochowski
On 20 January, Alyaksandr Lukashenka issued a decree scheduling a constitutional referendum to be held on 27 February. The vote will concern a document attached to a decree containing changes to dozens of articles of the present…
Analyses |
| Kamil Kłysiński
On 6 January 2022, during a meeting to discuss historical policy, Alyaksandr Lukashenka stressed that the “correct interpretation of history” is of key importance to the state’s security. He ordered historians to review the descriptions of…