Publications

On 21 May the Russian press, citing sources within Gazprom, stated that Belarus is behind on its payments for Russian gas to the tune of US$137mn for the first quarter of this year. This debt results from the fact that Belarus is still paying off its arrears at last year’s price, which is lower than the one currently applicable. As a result, towards the end of this year, Minsk will be faced with the need to pay a significant debt; this could be an additional instrument to strengthen pressure from the Kremlin, which aims to take control over strategic economic assets in.

Analyses
2010-05-26

On 21 May, during a session of the Polish-Russian Inter-Governmental Committee for Economic Cooperation in Moscow, the Russian Minister of Transport Igor Levitin officially proposed that Poland could participate in constructing a Baltic Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in the Kaliningrad region. Without Polish participation in such a project, including an agreement to link the energy systems of both countries, the economic justification for the project seems flawed. Constructing a power plant in Kaliningrad just before another one is planned to be built in Lithuania would make the second project questionable; such a decision may also influence the profitability of other projects in the region, including in Belarus and Poland. Russia’s aims include significantly increasing the countries of the region’s dependence on Russia in the energy sphere.
Analyses
2010-05-26
On 21 May, Turkmenistan’s president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov unexpectedly signed a decree stating that companies from Turkmenistan will build an internal East-West gas pipeline allowing the transfer of gas from the biggest deposits in Turkmenistan (Dowlatabad and Yolotan) to the Caspian coast. This decision means that Ashgabat is trying to expand its room for manoeuvre in taking decisions on the export of its raw material.
Analyses
2010-05-26

On 19 May the Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi arrived on a visit to Kyiv. During the visit a protocol was signed for cooperation between the ministers, and questions of economic cooperation were discussed. The visit may be a sign that Ukraine is testing the possibility of significantly deepening its political and economic relations with new partners, with the aim of increasing its room for manoeuvre in its relations with Russia and the EU.
Analyses
2010-05-26

The large number of possible post-electoral configurations will make negotiations on the formation of the government more difficult. Talks will probably be protracted and offer an opportunity for President Vaclav Klaus to be actively engaged.

Analyses
2010-05-26
Jakub Groszkowski
It is unlikely that the interim government in its current form will bring the country out of the crisis; indeed the scale and dynamic of the internal problems admit the possibility that Kyrgyzstan will turn into a failed state. The ongoing crisis poses a serious threat to the whole region’s stability.
Analyses
2010-05-26
Marek Matusiak

Moscow’s actions during the Iran crisis are a sign of its efforts to provide political support to Barack Obama’s administration. Moscow recognises that Obama’s policy can bring it specific benefits, and so it is endeavouring to ensure the policy’s continuation. in expectation of further political and economic gains.

Analyses
2010-05-26
Marcin Kaczmarski

On 10 May the Federal Statistical Office published data on German exports in March 2010. Due to a fall in the euro exchange rate and the stabilisation of the economic situation on emerging markets, the value of German exports increased by as much as 23.3% in comparison with March 2009 and exceeded the value from the year before the crisis – 2008.
Analyses
2010-05-19

On 12 May the Slovak Statistical Office announced that in the first quarter of 2010 the Slovak GDP has increased by 4.5% year on year, which probably constitutes the best result in the EU (Poland has not yet revealed its quarterly statistics). The data shows that after the deep recession of 2009 (a decrease in GDP of 4.7%) Slovakia has entered a period of a high economic growth rate. This is confirmed by the EC’s forecasts for April, according to which Slovakia will be the most dynamically developing EU country in 2010 (an expected growth of 2.7% of GDP).

 

Analyses
2010-05-19

On 15 May in Rostock the Left Party held a congress during which the new party authorities were elected. The change in the leadership of the party was meant to signal the consolidation of the party and emphasised its ability to enter into coalition with other parties. Once again the party did not manage to adopt a programme, which has a negative impact on the party's image and limits its capacity to form coalitions.

Analyses
2010-05-19

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