A game of cat and mouse

The restrictions are having an impact, as seen in Russia’s civilian-orientated industries. However, the West – particularly the European Union, which was Moscow’s largest trading partner before the invasion – has not demonstrated sufficient resolve in enforcing the sanctions. Russia still retains numerous avenues for accessing critical goods and technologies, and efforts to reduce its export revenues remain inadequate. While it is impossible to completely close sanctions evasion channels, they can be narrowed, the costs for Russia can be increased, and delivery times prolonged. It is therefore essential to enhance the overall effectiveness of the sanctions. 

Aside from openly anti-Western countries such as Iran and North Korea, and the West’s major rivals such as China, most other third countries are not helping Russia circumvent the sanctions for ideological reasons but for profit. However, many of these states – for example Turkey – derive their main economic benefits from cooperation with the West and are unwilling to jeopardise those relationships by enhancing their ties with Moscow.