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The results of the election in Ukraine are not good for Moscow. The outcome is the price Russia needs to pay for its policy towards Ukraine.
A precedent: the EU recognises the right of Russia to influence the shape of EU relations with the countries of the former USSR.
The agreement won't bring an end to the conflict. Its vague and general provisions allow a great deal of flexibility in its interpretation by both parties.
Russia’s strategic goal regarding Ukraine remains unchanged – the permanent subordination of that country.
Given the military defeats of the rebels and deepening divides between them, Kyiv’s position in political negotiations is becoming ever stronger.
Poroshenko received a very strong mandate, although he is now facing dramatic challenges.
In the immediate future, we should expect the separatists to take measures to increase control over the Donbas.
Russia wants to see international talks involving the pro-Russian opposition to continue, which will increase political pressure on Kyiv.
The Geneva agreement does not mean that Kyiv is beginning to regain the initiative, nor will it have any real impact on the situation in eastern Ukraine.
By fomenting separatism in Moldova’s regions, Russia wants to prevent Moldova from signing an Association Agreement with the EU.