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Analyses | | Iwona Wiśniewska, Filip Rudnik, Andrzej Kohut

US sanctions bill on Russia a political tool with uncertain prospects for implementation

On 16 September, the US House of Representatives passed a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, originally proposed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The vote completed the bill’s passage through Congress, and it now awaits the president’s…
Analyses | | Agata Łoskot-Strachota

Further disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies

On 10 September, following attacks by Iran-aligned forces and damage to infrastructure, Saudi Aramco shut down the East-West pipeline. On 15 September, reports emerged that a number of crude oil deliveries to European refineries scheduled…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Sławomir Matuszak, Jacek Tarociński

The Russians are launching an attack along the border with Poland Day 1665 of the war

Analyses | | Filip Rudnik

Russia the second wave of the fuel crisis

Signs of a deepening fuel crisis have reappeared in Russia since August, with petrol shortages reported in many regions, alongside rising prices and queues at filling stations. The situation deteriorated after Ukraine intensified its…
Analyses | | Krzysztof Nieczypor

A bridge too far Ukraines operation to isolate Crimea

Over the past three months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on the Russian army’s operational rear on Crimea. The targets have included logistics hubs, road, rail and maritime infrastructure, troop concentrations, air defence systems,…
Analyses | | Michał Bogusz

Amendment to Chinas National Defence Mobilisation Law

On 31 August, Xi Jinping promulgated an amendment to the 2010 National Defence Mobilisation Law of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国国防动员法), which will enter into force on 1 October this year. The amendment does not fundamentally…
Analyses | | Krzysztof Nieczypor

SBU versus HUR conflict between Ukraines security services

On 3 September, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the dismissal of deputy heads of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR). The decision came in response…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Krzysztof Nieczypor, Jacek Tarociński

Three days of calm in Kyiv Day 1658 of the war

Analyses | | Witold Rodkiewicz, Marek Menkiszak, Krzysztof Nieczypor, Andrzej Kohut

Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv White House resumes peace mediation

On 5 September, President Donald Trump’s special envoys, Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visited Moscow, resuming efforts to bring Russia’s war against Ukraine to an end after a hiatus of more than six months. Their talks at the Kremlin…
Analyses | | Łukasz Maślanka

Wartime economies of scale €150 billion for defence in the EUs 2028–2034 budget

The European Commission intends to increase funding for defence-related purposes to approximately €150 billion in its proposal for the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). As part of its reform of the EU budget, the Commission…