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OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

The state as a family business Succession scenarios in Belarus

The personalist nature of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime, his advancing age (72) and recurring signs of declining health have made the question of succession increasingly important. The dictator himself has done little to clarify the issue…
OSW Commentary | | Szymon Kardaś, Kamil Kłysiński

The story that never ends A new stage in the energy dispute between Russia and Belarus

… republics in the Donbas. [4] For more information see: Kamil Kłysiński, ‘The risk of escalating tensions in … social parasitism”. For more information see: Kamil Kłysiński, ‘Demonstracje na Białorusi’, OSW …
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Systemic crisis in Alexander Lukashenkos regime

… the danger of an uncontrollable social revolt.     Kamil Kłysiński, co-operation Tadeusz Iwański   …
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Is the crisis over The economic situation in Belarus after two years of recession

… and the terms of its settling, see Szymon Kardaś, Kamil Kłysiński, ‘The story that never ends. A new stage …
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

A crisis rather than a disaster The Belarusian economy a year into Russias war against Ukraine

The stability of the Belarusian economy has come under threat from the new Western sanctions, imposed on the country in 2022 for its complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the loss of the Ukrainian market. According to the most…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Tough business in tough times Belarusian exports of potash fertilisers

The extraction of potash salts and their processing into fertilisers have long been hallmarks of Belarusian industrial success. The state-owned company Belaruskali accounted for up to 20% of the global market, relying entirely on domestic…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

A depopulating country Belaruss demographic situation

Since the beginning of the 1990s, Belarus’s demographic situation has seen a steady decline in its population. This has been due to both a declining birth rate and increasing emigration. As a consequence, from the beginning of Belarusian…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

The end of prosperity The state of Belarusian refineries

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

The price of dependence on Russia The economic consequences of Belaruss complicity in Russias aggression against Ukraine

In Q1 2022, Belarus’s GDP contracted by 0.4% – the first GDP decline since the end of 2020. Being Russia’s closest military ally, Belarus has made its territory available to the Russian Armed Forces, thereby joining Russia’s invasion…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński, Piotr Żochowski

The reluctant co-aggressor Minsks complicity in the war against Ukraine

Since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Republic of Belarus (RB) has made its territory and its military, transport and logistical infrastructure available to the Russian army. However, the Belarusian army is not…