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Analyses | | Krzysztof Nieczypor, Piotr Żochowski

An intensification of air strikes instead of an offensive Day 1553 of the war

Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Witold Rodkiewicz, Kamil Kłysiński

Nuclear force exercises in Russia and Belarus

On 19–21 May, the Russian Armed Forces conducted comprehensive exercises involving both components of the country’s nuclear forces – strategic and tactical. The drills included the joint preparation and simulated use of tactical nuclear…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski, Jacek Tarociński

Mutual escalation of air strikes Day 1546 of the war

Analyses | | Marcin Jędrysiak

Ukraine corruption scandal involving senior government officials continues

On 11 May, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) charged former head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak with money laundering. Investigators allege that 460 million hryvnias (almost €9 million) were used to finance…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski, Jacek Tarociński

A mutual ceasefire on Victory Day Day 1539 of the war

Analyses | | Filip Rudnik, Miłosz Bartosiewicz

Ukrainian attacks on Tuapse a threat to Russias fuel sector and the environment

Since mid-April 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have attacked Russian energy infrastructure facilities in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, on at least four occasions: 16, 20 and 28 April, and 1 May. These drone strikes triggered prolonged fires…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski, Jacek Tarociński

Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure Day 1532 of the war

Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Lidia Gibadło

United States planned reduction of the US military presence in Germany

On 1 May, a spokesperson for the Pentagon announced that the Secretary of Defence (War) had decided to reduce the US military presence in Germany by around 5,000 troops over the next 6 to 12 months, without providing further details.
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Krzysztof Nieczypor, Jacek Tarociński

Russia is expanding the area under its control around Vovchansk Day 1525 of the war

Analyses | | Bartosz Chmielewski

Estonia assessments of the Russian threat cause friction between Tallinn and Kyiv

On 20 April, the Estonian government criticised Ukraine’s information policy, including public speculation about a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states. This followed a suggestion by President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia was…