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Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Witold Rodkiewicz, Kamil Kłysiński

Nuclear force exercises in Russia and Belarus

On 19–21 May, the Russian Armed Forces conducted comprehensive exercises involving both components of the country’s nuclear forces – strategic and tactical. The drills included the joint preparation and simulated use of tactical nuclear…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Systemic crisis in Alexander Lukashenkos regime

… the danger of an uncontrollable social revolt.     Kamil Kłysiński, co-operation Tadeusz Iwański   …
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Is the crisis over The economic situation in Belarus after two years of recession

… and the terms of its settling, see Szymon Kardaś, Kamil Kłysiński, ‘The story that never ends. A new stage …
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński

No breakthrough as planned the current state of Russia-Belarus integration

On 26 February, Moscow hosted a further meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, a format for regular meetings between the leaders of Russia and Belarus, together with their respective government delegations. On this…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

A crisis rather than a disaster The Belarusian economy a year into Russias war against Ukraine

The stability of the Belarusian economy has come under threat from the new Western sanctions, imposed on the country in 2022 for its complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the loss of the Ukrainian market. According to the most…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

Tough business in tough times Belarusian exports of potash fertilisers

The extraction of potash salts and their processing into fertilisers have long been hallmarks of Belarusian industrial success. The state-owned company Belaruskali accounted for up to 20% of the global market, relying entirely on domestic…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

A depopulating country Belaruss demographic situation

Since the beginning of the 1990s, Belarus’s demographic situation has seen a steady decline in its population. This has been due to both a declining birth rate and increasing emigration. As a consequence, from the beginning of Belarusian…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński, Andrzej Kohut

Eased sanctions for the release of 123 prisoners as US–Belarus relations continue to thaw

Following talks with Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk on 12–13 December, the US President’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coale, announced the lifting of the embargo on Belarusian potash fertilisers, originally imposed in 2021. In return,…
OSW Commentary | | Kamil Kłysiński

The end of prosperity The state of Belarusian refineries

The sanctions imposed by the West after 2020, along with the involvement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime in the invasion of Ukraine, have severely impacted Belarus’spetrochemical sector. The EU’s embargo on the import of petroleum…
Analyses | | Joanna Hyndle-Hussein, Kamil Kłysiński

Belarusian balloons prompt emergency situation in Lithuania

On 9 December, the Lithuanian government declared a nationwide emergency due to the threat to civil security posed by Belarusian smuggling balloons, which have been active for the past two months. These balloons are being directed into…