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Analyses | | Agata Łoskot-Strachota

Attack on Iran challenges for the oil market

The war between the United States and Israel and Iran, now entering its second week, is increasingly affecting neighbouring the Gulf states that export oil. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been in place for several days, is…
Analyses | | Karol Wasilewski

Diplomacy under strain Turkeys stance on Iran

In a statement issued on 4 March, Turkey’s Ministry of National Defence announced that an Iranian ballistic missile heading towards Turkish airspace had been shot down. It was most likely bound for the İncirlik base, where, among others,…
Analyses | | Łukasz Maślanka

Sovereign yet forward-oriented towards Europe the evolution of Frances nuclear deterrence doctrine

In a speech delivered on 2 March at the strategic submarine base on Île Longue in Brittany, President Emmanuel Macron announced the launch of a transformation of France’s nuclear doctrine towards “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée)…
Analyses | | Łukasz Maślanka

The E3 and the EU in response to the attack on Iran reluctantly aligned with the US

Europe’s largest countries have declined to join the initial phase of the US-Israeli strikes against Iran. However, they have condemned the Islamic Republic’s disproportionate and ‘indiscriminate’ retaliatory campaign targeting countries…
Analyses | | Karol Wasilewski

Turkey and nuclear weapons playing a game of strategic ambiguity

In media appearances this February, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has suggested that international developments could prompt Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. Ankara is concerned about the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East…
OSW Commentary | | Marek Menkiszak

Sometimes it is better not to talk Pitfalls of potential dialogue between Europe and Russia

In recent weeks, discussions have intensified regarding the possible resumption of dialogue – including at the highest political level – between the European Union, its Member States, and the Russian Federation. This debate has unfolded in…
Analyses | | Adam Michalski

Turkey and the EU renewed efforts in a complex web of disputes

On 6 February 2026, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, arrived in Ankara, where she met the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, among other officials. During the…
Analyses | | Daria Zielińska

Ukrainian attacks on the CPC oil pipeline outlook for Kazakhstans oil sector

Kazakhstan’s oil sector is facing a serious crisis due to reduced throughput of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), caused by Ukrainian drone attacks in November 2025 and January of this year. The CPC pipeline transports about 1% of…