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Analyses | | Andrzej Kohut, Jacek Tarociński

US defence budget for 2026 Congress approves continued support for Ukraine and a military presence in Europe

On 18 December, President Donald Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for the 2026 fiscal year, after it received bipartisan support in Congress, passing the House of Representatives by 312 votes to 112 and…
Analyses | | Kamil Kłysiński, Andrzej Kohut

Eased sanctions for the release of 123 prisoners as US–Belarus relations continue to thaw

Following talks with Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk on 12–13 December, the US President’s Special Envoy for Belarus, John Coale, announced the lifting of the embargo on Belarusian potash fertilisers, originally imposed in 2021. In return,…
Analyses | | Justyna Gotkowska, Andrzej Kohut

The new US National Security Strategy a manifesto for a sovereign America in a multipolar world

On 4 December, the Trump administration released a new National Security Strategy, signalling a profound redefinition of the United States’ role in the world and a shift in the objectives and assumptions of its foreign and security policy.
Analyses | | Jacek Tarociński, Andrzej Kohut, Piotr Szymański

Consequences of the discontinuation of the Baltic Security Initiative by the Trump administration

On 5 September, citing an anonymous White House source, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 (1 October 2025 – 30 September 2026) does not envisage continued funding for the…
Analyses | | Marek Menkiszak, Andrzej Kohut

Russia calmly reacts to Trumps ultimatum on the Ukraine war

On 14 July, during a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, US President Donald Trump announced a new mechanism to support Ukraine.
Analyses | | Andrzej Kohut, Jacek Tarociński

Trumps One Big Beautiful Bill Act lower taxes and greater focus on border protection and confrontation with China

On 4 July, President Donald Trump signed a reconciliation bill, concluding months of negotiations in the US Congress over its final form. The legislation enables adjustments to the budget for the ongoing fiscal year and represents a key…
Analyses | | Andrzej Kohut, Kacper Sienicki, Andrzej Wilk

America First US halts arms deliveries to Ukraine

On 1 July, Politico reported that the Pentagon had halted some deliveries of US weapons to Ukraine. The following day, a Pentagon spokesperson confirmed the report. According to Ukrainian sources, the decision affects all categories of…
Analyses | | Marek Matusiak, Krzysztof Strachota, Andrzej Kohut

Israels attack on Iran the end of a proxy war the beginning of conventional warfare

During the night of 12–13 June, Israel launched a military strike against Iran, which – according to official statements – is intended to result in the destruction of the country’s nuclear programme. In the following days, several hundred…
Analyses | | Andrzej Kohut, Jacek Tarociński

Colby and his team at the Pentagon the consequences for US military presence in Europe

On 8 April, the US Senate confirmed the nomination of Elbridge Colby as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, making him the principal adviser to the Secretary of Defence on shaping national security policy and the third-most senior…
OSW Commentary | | Andrzej Kohut

The US budget battle a crucial test for Republicans

A battle is under way in the United States Congress over the shape of the federal budget for the 2025 fiscal year. The Donald Trump administration’s stated goal is to balance the budget and reduce public debt. Its approach centres on…