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Analyses | | Krzysztof Nieczypor, Andrzej Wilk, Piotr Żochowski

The Donbas crisis between bluff and war

During the last days of March, representatives of Ukraine’s government (including President Zelensky) and army announced that Russia was preparing a wide-ranging armed provocation against Ukraine. According to the Commander-in-Chief of the…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk

The Russian attack on Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea the military aspects

On 24 November, a group of ships of the Ukrainian Navy, composed of two armoured artillery boats, the Berdyansk and the Nikopol (newly-constructed Giurza M-type units, which have been in service since 2016 and 2018 respectively) and the…
Analyses | | Krzysztof Nieczypor, Andrzej Wilk, Jan Strzelecki, Wojciech Konończuk

Consequences of the incident in the Sea of Azov

Before midnight on 25 November, President Petro Poroshenko issued a decree at the request of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine to introduce martial law for a period of 60 days, while announcing that a general…
OSW Studies | | Andrzej Wilk

The best army Ukraine has ever had Changes in Ukraines armed forces since the Russian aggression

The war in the Donbas shaped the Ukrainian army. It helped its soldiers gain awareness and motivation. It also forced the administration of the Ukrainian ministry of defence and the government to adapt the structure – for the first time…
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk

Escalation of tension in the Donbas

The most intense armed clashes between separatists and Ukrainian government forces since the beginning of this year have taken place in Avdiyivka.
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Maria Domańska, Wojciech Konończuk, Wojciech Górecki

The deteriorating military situation in the Donbas

It may be assumed that Russia intends to use the present escalation of exchanges of fire to put more pressure on Kyiv, and mainly on the West.
Analyses | | Andrzej Wilk, Tadeusz A Olszański, Wojciech Górecki

The Minsk agreement one year of shadow boxing

The conflict is likely to remain in its present, not fully frozen state, with all the negative consequences that entails for the Donbass, the rest of Ukraine, and Russia.
Analyses | | Tadeusz A Olszański, Andrzej Wilk, Jan Strzelecki

Kyiv refuses to make concessions to the separatist republics

Kyiv is ready for a long-term ‘freezing’ of the conflict under international control.
Analyses | | Witold Rodkiewicz, Rafał Sadowski, Andrzej Wilk

Hybrid truce in the Donbas

The formal coming into force of a ceasefire, in accordance with the Minsk agreements, has not stopped the fighting in the east of Ukraine.
Analyses | | Witold Rodkiewicz, Andrzej Wilk, Wojciech Konończuk, Kamil Frymark

The Donbas conflict after the Mariupol shelling

Armed activity in the Donbas has resumed along the entire length of the front line in recent days.