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Analyses | | Marta Zawilska-Florczuk
Defeat for the candidate representing the government team in the presidential election may aggravate the federal government’s problems and weaken Angela Merkel’s position in the CDU.
Analyses |

President Vaclav Klaus on 4 June entrusted the leader of the right-wing Civic Democratic Party (ODS) Petr Necas with the government forming mission. ODS leader is engaged in negotiations preceding the formation of a government coalition by ODS, TOP 09 and Public Affairs (VV). According to party leaders’ statements, the coalition talks will be closed at the beginning of July. Even if VV does not join the coalition, it may still grant support to the right-wing cabinet.
Analyses |

Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Dmitry Medvedev met on 4–5 June in Meseberg near Berlin. The joint proposal for establishing an EU-Russia assembly for European security issues which was presented after the meeting proves that Germany still wants to have a strong influence on the shape of relations between the EU and Russia.
Analyses |

On 1 June, the Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce published the results of a questionnaire conducted among German entrepreneurs operating in Central and Eastern Europe. According to the data, Poland has been ranked first in the investment attractiveness rating for the second time in a row. The favourable questionnaire results prove Poland’s strong position as a target destination for German investments and will also improve the perception of the Polish economy among German investors.
Analyses |
The European Commission at the beginning of June launched an investigation into the breach of the European competition law by the joint venture of Areva and Siemens, which builds nuclear reactors. The investigation was launched upon a motion from Siemens, which thus wants to eliminate the clause which imposes a ban on any competitive action until 2020 from the co-operation agreement with Areva and thus become able to start co-operation with Rosatom in the nuclear sector. This sector is becoming yet another area in which Germany and Russia are tightening economic co-operation at the expense of French-German business contacts.
Analyses |

On 6 June, 51.5% of Slovenians supported in a referendum an agreement with Croatia which will enable the resolution of the border dispute between the two countries through international arbitration. The result of the vote will have a positive effect not only on bilateral relations between Croatia and Slovenia but also on the process of Croatia’s accession to the EU; the unresolved dispute with Slovenia was one of the key impediments to closing accession negotiations.
Analyses |

The federal Defence Ministry is to cut expenses by 4 billion euros over 2011–2014 as part of a savings plan. Given the budget cuts, the Defence Ministry has announced a structural reform of the Bundeswehr, which may fundamentally change the German army. The need to reform the German armed forces has already been mentioned in the coalition agreement on the basis of which a special commission has been established to develop the reform guidelines. The current expense cuts in the defence sector could become a convenient excuse for presenting more controversial changes.
Analyses | | Marcin Kaczmarski

Moscow’s actions during the Iran crisis are a sign of its efforts to provide political support to Barack Obama’s administration. Moscow recognises that Obama’s policy can bring it specific benefits, and so it is endeavouring to ensure the policy’s continuation. in expectation of further political and economic gains.

Analyses | | Marek Matusiak
It is unlikely that the interim government in its current form will bring the country out of the crisis; indeed the scale and dynamic of the internal problems admit the possibility that Kyrgyzstan will turn into a failed state. The ongoing crisis poses a serious threat to the whole region’s stability.
Analyses |

On 21 May, during a session of the Polish-Russian Inter-Governmental Committee for Economic Cooperation in Moscow, the Russian Minister of Transport Igor Levitin officially proposed that Poland could participate in constructing a Baltic Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in the Kaliningrad region. Without Polish participation in such a project, including an agreement to link the energy systems of both countries, the economic justification for the project seems flawed. Constructing a power plant in Kaliningrad just before another one is planned to be built in Lithuania would make the second project questionable; such a decision may also influence the profitability of other projects in the region, including in Belarus and Poland. Russia’s aims include significantly increasing the countries of the region’s dependence on Russia in the energy sphere.