Publications

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia.

OSW Commentary
2012-11-21
Arkadiusz Sarna

The Ukrainian oligarchic system, which developed into its ultimate shape during Leonid Kuchma’s second presidency, turned out to be very durable. The nature of close relations between the government and the oligarchs has not undergone any major changes either as a consequence of the Orange Revolution or following Victor Yanukovych’s victory in the presidential election of 2010. 

OSW Studies
2012-10-16
Sławomir Matuszak

18 August saw the end of the process of registering candidates for election to the parliament of Ukraine. In the proportional elections (for 225 seats) 22 parties will compete, while in the majority seats (also 225 places) 3100 candidates will stand representing 89 parties; this means that in most districts 25-30% of the vote will be enough to win (elections are decided by a plurality of votes).

Analyses
2012-08-22
Tadeusz A. Olszański
President Viktor Yanukovych’s decrees approving the new National Security Strategy ‘Ukraine in a Changing World’ and the Military Doctrine were published on 8 June. They replaced documents adopted during the presidencies of Leonid Kuchma (the Military Doctrine of 2004) and Viktor Yushchenko (the National Security Strategy of 2007), which became obsolete after President Yanukovych announced in 2010 that Ukraine would no longer aspire to NATO membership and that the principle of remaining outside any blocs would be followed.
Analyses
2012-06-13
Natalia Orłowska-Chyż
The country’s government assumed, during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych alike, that Euro 2012 would provide a major impulse for economic development and show that the young Ukrainian state was capable of successfully preparing one of the most important sport tournaments in the world.
OSW Commentary
2012-06-08
Sławomir Matuszak
Tadeusz A. Olszański
On 29 March, the state-owned Naftohaz announced that it is seeking to open a credit line for $2 billion with Russia’s Gazprombank for a period of 7 years. By way of explanation, Naftohaz said that it did not have the resources to pay for Russian gas, due to high prices and customers’ rising debts.
Analyses
2012-04-04
Sławomir Matuszak
The negotiations between Ukraine and the European Union on the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) have reached the final stage. Russia is opposed to Ukraine signing this agreement. Ukraine's main oligarchs can neither push forward nor impede the conclusion of the DCFTA as on the whole it does not directly affect their interests.
Analyses
2011-09-14
Sławomir Matuszak
International financial institutions have improved their assessment of the Ukrainian economy. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for economic growth in Ukraine in 2011 from 4.5% to 5%, and the ratings agency Fitch has changed its assessment of Ukraine’s implementation of its credit commitments from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’. This means that these financial institutions have assessed the Ukrainian government’s economic policies positively, and have recognised that the risk of the country going bankrupt is falling, despite the increased level of state debt.
Analyses
2011-07-27
On 7 July Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, voted in a new pension system law which does not change the present pension system – based on what is called the ‘solidarity of generations’, i.e. disbursing pensions from the fund’s current revenues, meaning contributions made by people currently in work – but only makes certain corrections (the most important one raises the retirement age for women). The introduction of individual pension accounts in the State Pension Fund was postponed until the deficit of the fund is remedied, which cannot be expected without a radical reform of the pension system. By raising the retirement age for women Kyiv fulfilled one of the key demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but they are still to reform the pension system.
Analyses
2011-07-13
A new holding group has been created in Ukraine; HarvEast will trade on the agriculture and food market. Its creation on 7 June was announced by System Capital Management (SCM), the largest corporation in Ukraine, owned by Ukraine’s richest man Rinat Akhmetov and Smart Holding’s Vadim Novinsky (Akhmetov’s partner, and himself one of the wealthiest businessmen in Ukraine). The HarvEast Group will be one of the biggest players on the market, and with appropriate financial outlays over the next few years, it could become a market leader. The creation of this holding demonstrates the growing interest among big business representatives in agriculture, which is considered the most promising branch of the Ukrainian economy – a branch which to date has not been overrun by any of the oligarchic groups.
Analyses
2011-06-15

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