Publications

The ruling party Smer has won the election but the government will be established by the centre-right. The change in power will improve the atmosphere in Slovak-Hungarian relations.
Analyses
2010-06-16
Mateusz Gniazdowski
Russia’s probable intervention in Kyrgyzstan is likely to meet with the acceptance of world opinion. By stabilising the situation in that country, Moscow will pursue the expansion of its influence in Central Asia and the strengthening of its position with regard to the other players in the region
Analyses
2010-06-16
Wojciech Górecki
Marek Matusiak

The federal Defence Ministry is to cut expenses by 4 billion euros over 2011–2014 as part of a savings plan. Given the budget cuts, the Defence Ministry has announced a structural reform of the Bundeswehr, which may fundamentally change the German army. The need to reform the German armed forces has already been mentioned in the coalition agreement on the basis of which a special commission has been established to develop the reform guidelines. The current expense cuts in the defence sector could become a convenient excuse for presenting more controversial changes.
Analyses
2010-06-09

On 6 June, 51.5% of Slovenians supported in a referendum an agreement with Croatia which will enable the resolution of the border dispute between the two countries through international arbitration. The result of the vote will have a positive effect not only on bilateral relations between Croatia and Slovenia but also on the process of Croatia’s accession to the EU; the unresolved dispute with Slovenia was one of the key impediments to closing accession negotiations.
Analyses
2010-06-09
The European Commission at the beginning of June launched an investigation into the breach of the European competition law by the joint venture of Areva and Siemens, which builds nuclear reactors. The investigation was launched upon a motion from Siemens, which thus wants to eliminate the clause which imposes a ban on any competitive action until 2020 from the co-operation agreement with Areva and thus become able to start co-operation with Rosatom in the nuclear sector. This sector is becoming yet another area in which Germany and Russia are tightening economic co-operation at the expense of French-German business contacts.
Analyses
2010-06-09

On 1 June, the Polish-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce published the results of a questionnaire conducted among German entrepreneurs operating in Central and Eastern Europe. According to the data, Poland has been ranked first in the investment attractiveness rating for the second time in a row. The favourable questionnaire results prove Poland’s strong position as a target destination for German investments and will also improve the perception of the Polish economy among German investors.
Analyses
2010-06-09

Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Dmitry Medvedev met on 4–5 June in Meseberg near Berlin. The joint proposal for establishing an EU-Russia assembly for European security issues which was presented after the meeting proves that Germany still wants to have a strong influence on the shape of relations between the EU and Russia.
Analyses
2010-06-09

On 2 June, the presidential committee for reforms endorsed a complex program of economic and social reforms for the period from 2010 to 2014. The programme accurately diagnoses the problems and challenges which Ukraine faces, and has systematically presented proposals for reforms. The most important question is whether this programme will be realised at all, and if it is, to what degree.
Analyses
2010-06-09

On 31 May, President Dmitri Medvedev accepted the resignation of the governor of Yakutia, Vyacheslav Shtyrov, two years before the end of the latter’s term in office. Shtyrov’s successor will probably be Aysen Nikolayev, who represents the younger generation of Yakutia’s political and business elite. The governor’s resignation, which was most probably caused by his conflict with the local elite, is an unprecedented move, and shows the boundaries which the Kremlin may be running into in the regions.

Analyses
2010-06-09

On 7 June in Istanbul, in the presence of the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev and the prime minister of Turkey Recep Erdogan, a range of documents was signed concerning bilateral gas cooperation. This represents significant progress in the gas negotiations between both countries, which have lasted several years, and is a signal of their joint intent to activate gas export to the West via the Southern Corridor (including the ITGI and Nabucco pipelines), which the EU has lobbied for. At the same time, however, the general character of signed documents – memoranda and declarations – indicates a need for further talks aimed at specifying the final terms for the sale and transit of the gas from Azerbaijan.

Analyses
2010-06-09

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