Publications

In the absence of prospects for economic recovery and a return to dialogue with the West, it will be extremely difficult for Lukashenka to inhibit the further expansion of Russian capital, which is tantamount to a significant reduction in the sovereignty of Belarus.
Analyses
2011-12-01
Kamil Kłysiński
On 18 November in Moscow, the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – Dmitri Medvedev, Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Nursultan Nazarbayev – signed documents designed to lead to the creation of a Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Analyses
2011-11-23
Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga
In the past two months, the President of Belarus Alyaksandr Lukashenka has taken a number of steps to strengthen and modify the role of the power ministries in managing the state and enhancing the military factor in the functioning of the state apparatus.
Analyses
2011-11-09
Kamil Kłysiński
Piotr Żochowski
The lack of freedom of manoeuvre in foreign policy, no possibility to maintain a costly economic model and the lack of support from the majority of society all prove that Alexander Lukashenko's regime is in severe crisis.
OSW Commentary
2011-10-28
Kamil Kłysiński
This document is intended to replace more than 100 bilateral agreements which currently govern free trade between these countries. The free trade area can only come into force when all the signatory states ratify it.
Analyses
2011-10-26
Iwona Wiśniewska
Only the Belarusian opposition was present at the summit. The EU member states unanimously adopted a declaration in which they reiterated their conditions for returning to dialogue with Minsk. Meanwhile a draft EU aid package for Belarus with a total value of approximately US$9 billion was presented, which can only be implemented after Brussels’ demands have been met.
Analyses
2011-10-05
Kamil Kłysiński
The Belarusian government is still not ready to undertake root-and-branch reform of the system, and is restricting itself to taking ad hoc measures. In addition, record inflation and a drop in real wages pose a risk of social discontent, which would force the government to introduce costly social policies.
Analyses
2011-09-21
Kamil Kłysiński
Between 16-22 September, the biggest joint military exercises by the Russian and Belarusian armies this year were held on testing grounds in the European part of the Russian Federation, under the codename Union Shield 2011. 12,000 soldiers participated, including 5000 from Belarus.
Analyses
2011-09-21
Andrzej Wilk
Via the Bulgarian Foreign Ministry, the regime has spent the last few weeks probing the options for improving relations between Minsk and Brussels. Both the Belarusian opposition and the EU’s diplomats have made their positions dependent on the unconditional release and full rehabilitation of all opposition prisoners.
Analyses
2011-09-07
Kamil Kłysiński
On 4 August, a leading Belarusian human rights activist, Ales Byalatski, was arrested on suspicion of concealing income. The Belarusian tax authorities based their allegations on data from an account in a Lithuanian bank belonging to Byalatski, which the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice forwarded to Minsk under an interstate agreement on mutual legal assistance. This calls into question the mechanism for the external funding of Belarusian NGOs. Belarus has taken steps to freeze this system and discredit those countries which participate in it.
Analyses
2011-08-10

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