Publications

The repression employed against the opposition and independent media after the elections may significantly limit co-operation between the EU and Belarus, and thus weaken Minsk’s position in its dealings with Moscow.
Analyses
2010-12-29
Kamil Kłysiński
Unlike the previous elections in 2006, during this year's presidential campaign the government of Belarus has clearly eased its policies towards the opposition, and created greater opportunities to conduct electoral canvassing. However, this political liberalisation is limited in nature, and has not addressed any of the key issues, such as monitoring the voting and the process of counting the votes. The appearance of democratisation is primarily a gesture towards foreign observers. The limited nature of the changes will not jeopardise the main aim of Alyaksandr Lukashenka – to get re-elected in the first round of elections on 19 December.
Analyses
2010-12-15
Kamil Kłysiński
The chances of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus creating a common market in the planned form and by the intended deadline are limited. Closer cooperation between those countries will be the result of a lengthy and difficult process.
Analyses
2010-12-15
Aleksandra Jarosiewicz
Kamil Kłysiński
Iwona Wiśniewska
On 24 November, the Belarusian democratic forces organised a demonstration in the centre of Minsk, whose main slogan was the demand for Alyaksandr Lukashenka to resign as President. Both the preparations for and the course of the demonstration once again showed up the deep divisions within the opposition, and its leaders’ inability to exploit the dissatisfaction of some sections of society at the situation in the country.
Analyses
2010-12-01
At the end of November, Russia took action to block the supply of alternative oil deliveries to Belarus. On 25 November the Latvian-Russian company LatRosTrans, which owns the Ventspils-Navapolatsk pipeline, started emptying technological crude oil from it; this prevents oil from being delivered via this route to the Belarusian refinery in Navapolatsk. On 22 November Transneft, the Russian oil pipeline monopolist, stated that transporting oil from Odessa via Brody to refineries in Mazyr could lead to problems in supplying Russian oil to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Russia’s actions show that Moscow wants to prevent the supply to Belarus of oil from non-Russian sources; it cannot be ruled out that it may even temporarily restrict transit via the southern section of the Druzhba pipeline.
Analyses
2010-12-01
On 8 November, the Belarusian deputy prime minister Uladzimir Siemashka announced that in the second half of this month a test transmission of oil to Belarus via Ukrainian territory will be carried out along the Odessa-Brody pipeline, and then along the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline. This is the result of an agreement between Belarus and Ukraine on the use of the latter’s pipelines to transport oil to Belarusian refineries. For Kyiv, this is an opportunity to fill the Odessa-Brody pipeline as Russia has stopped using it. Minsk, for its part, has the chance of cheaper transport via an alternative pipeline to Russian oil supplies.
Analyses
2010-11-17
Up to 11 candidates for president of Belarus submitted their letters of support, each containing at least 100,000 signatures, before the expiry of the deadline for registration on 29 October, including the incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The candidates who have been registered will take part in the presidential election on 19 December. Admitting numerous rivals to incumbent president is a gesture towards European Union, but it does not in fact mean any real liberalisation of the electoral process.
Analyses
2010-11-04
Germany is officially criticising Belarus for non-compliance with democratic standards, while at the same time intensifying economic and political contacts in order to build its strong economic position in Belarus.
Analyses
2010-11-04
Justyna Gotkowska
On 25 October, the EU Council accepted conclusions on situation in Belarus extending the existing ban on entry to EU countries on 41 representatives of the Belarusian government until 31 October 2011. At the same time, the Council once again suspended the application of sanctions against 36 of the officials, including President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. The EU has made its further relations with Belarus conditional on the development of democracy in this country, as well as whether the presidential elections scheduled for 19 December will be held in accordance with international standards. The new document is confirmation that that EU intends to continue its current policy towards Minsk, while at the same time waiting upon the development of the political situation in that country.
Analyses
2010-10-27
The most serious crisis in the history of Russian-Belarusian relations has been taking place over the past few months. In 2007 Russia started the process of depriving Belarus of subsidies in the form of supplies of fuels at low prices, which have for more than a decade guaranteed the stability of the Belarusian economic model.
OSW Commentary
2010-10-27
Kamil Kłysiński
Wojciech Konończuk

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