The awards by the Arbitral Tribunal have radically changed the model of Ukrainian-Russian gas relations.
On 2nd March the CEO of Gazprom CEO, Alexei Miller, announced that two gas agreements with the Ukrainian company Naftogaz would be terminated.
The geographical structure of gas imports to Ukraine in 2015 confirms that Kyiv has succeeded in reducing its dependence on Russia.
Moscow’s consent to extend the winter package represents a concession to Ukraine.
The suspension by Naftohaz of gas supplies to the Donbas has been treated by Moscow as a pretext to unfreeze the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute.
We cannot rule out the possibility that the gas ‘ceasefire’ will be violated before the date specified in the protocol.
Both countries are prepared for lengthy litigation as they are aware that the future model of bilateral gas co-operation is at stake.
On 26 January the Financial Times, citing a source in the Ukrainian government, reported that Gazprom had issued a bill for US$7 billion to Naftohaz for the purchase in 2012 of a smaller amount of gas than that agreed in their 2009 contract, due to a ‘take or pay’ clause. The same day, a Naftohaz spokesman confirmed the British newspaper’s report.
When Moldova and Ukraine joined the Energy Community in May 2010 and February 2011 respectively, they committed themselves to adopting and implementing a series of European Union directives relating to gas, electricity, renewable energy and environmental protection. Although the deadline for implementing most of these measures has passed (at the end of 2010 in the case of Moldova, and this January for Ukraine), it is Chisinau which has made some progress, mainly in the electricity sector, whereas Kyiv has failed to meet fully a single one of its obligations.