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A meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group with the Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers, Eduard Nalbandian and Elmar Mammedyarov, was held on 1 December in Athens. The content of the OSCE’s statements on Karabakh, together with the reactions in Armenia and Azerbaijan, suggest that the sides of the conflict may be close to reaching a compromise concerning a framework agreement on Karabakh. more »
On 22 November, presidents of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, met in Munich amidst very harsh statements from both sides. Two days before, President Aliyev said that if the talks failed, Baku might reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh by force, and on the day after the meeting, the Armenian president's spokesman Samvel Farmanian stated that, should tension rise in the region, Armenia was prepared to recognise the independence of Karabakh. The objective of this rhetoric seems to have been for each side to put pressure on the other and the intermediaries (the OSCE Minsk Group), and to improve their own bargaining positions. The conflict may be resolved, at least partly, within the next few months, and Moscow continues to play a key role in the peace process (President Aliyev had already visited Russia on 24 November). more »
On 7 May, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, met in Prague within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group (led by USA, Russia, France) to discuss a solution to the Karabakh conflict. The meeting did not produce any tangible results. On the same day, both politicians held talks with the Turkish president Abdullah Gul, who suggested that talks about the conflict should be initiated in a four-party format involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia. The current tough diplomatic game over Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that its outcome will largely define the positions of the USA, Russia and Turkey in the Southern Caucasus. more »
On 22 April the foreign ministries of Armenia, Turkey and Switzerland (which served as an intermediary in the talks) published a joint communiqué on the agreement reached with regard to the principles according to which the normalisation of relations between Ankara and Yerevan should take place. This is the first time such an important step has been taken to regulate Turkish-Armenian relations, and as such it has been welcomed by the USA and the EU. At the same time, however, it has come in for strong criticism by nationalist communities in Azerbaijan, Turkey and Armenia. more »
Turkey and Russia have in recent weeks visibly stepped up their efforts to develop a framework agreement that would end the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Having marginalised the roles of the USA, the OSCE and the European Union, the two countries are imposing certain solutions on Armenia and Azerbaijan, which are in fact being forced into a compromise. The dynamics of developments, the pressure Moscow and Ankara have exerted, and the conciliatory declarations by Armenian and Azeri officials all indicate that a compromise is very likely to be reached in the near future. If signed, the agreement could significantly change the geopolitical architecture of the Southern Caucasus. It would be a step towards stabilisation of the region, considerably strengthen Russia and Turkey's influence there, and undermine the position of the West. more »
