2009-12-09

A meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group with the Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers, Eduard Nalbandian and Elmar Mammedyarov, was held on 1 December in Athens. The content of the OSCE’s statements on Karabakh, together with the reactions in Armenia and Azerbaijan, suggest that the sides of the conflict may be close to reaching a compromise concerning a framework agreement on Karabakh.

The Karabakh issue has been the subject of a declaration by the OSCE Ministerial Council and a statement by the Minsk Group and the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both documents mention a commitment not to use force, and the territorial integrity and self-determination of nations as cornerstones of the framework agreement. Armenia's acceptance of the principle of territorial integrity is unexpected, as previously they had consistently refused to sign any documents that mentioned this principle. This might suggest that Yerevan is considering giving up its demands for the full independence of Karabakh, if the area is subordinated to Baku only symbolically. The outcome of the talks has triggered lively discussion in Armenia: opposition parties and commentators have concluded that the Armenian authorities accepted a compromise on Karabakh under pressure from the international community (including the USA and the European Union). The compromise supposedly provides for the pullout of Armenian troops from parts of occupied Azeri territory in return for the introduction of a transitory status for Karabakh guaranteed by the international community, and provisions on a referendum on the future of the enclave, to be held in a decade or several decades from now, as well provisions preserving a land connection between the enclave and Armenia. Azeri officials have also signaled that progress has been achieved in the negotiations. The dynamics of the Armenian-Azeri talks (six presidential meetings have taken place in 2009) and the increase in international engagement suggest that there are chances that a framework document laying down principles of the future agreement may be signed. However, this will not automatically mean a lasting peace or an immediate resolution of the conflict. The complete lack of confidence between the parties, and the existence of many still unresolved detailed issues (such as the terms for the Azeri refugees to return to Karabakh), may impede the implementation of the framework agreement and create tension between Yerevan and Baku. <mf>
 
 

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