2009-10-07

The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, suggested during his working visit to the separatist republic of Abkhazia on 2-3 October that Russia would protect maritime traffic to and from Abkhazia, and defend Abkhazian interests on the international stage. An agreement on establishing visa-free movement was also signed during the visit. Russia is increasing its support for Sukhumi to demonstrate that it believes that Abkhazia's secession is non-negotiable; the assistance it has offered to the separatist republic may also signal that Moscow will support the present separatist leader Sergey Bagapsh in the presidential election scheduled for this autumn.

Protecting maritime traffic is the most important issue for Abkhazia because the Georgian coast guard has arrested at least a dozen ships going to or from Sukhumi over the past few months. Minister Lavrov's promise was confirmed by a leak stating that such vessels could be accompanied by Russian warships; this was reiterated on 5 and 6 October by Russian media referring to sources within Russian law enforcement structures.

The Russian declarations seem to be a message addressed first of all to the West that Moscow is prepared to protect its interests in the Caucasus by any means, including military. The Kremlin's offer of extensive assistance to the separatists may also be a sign of its readiness to support the present Abkhazian leader Sergey Bagapsh, who will run for a second term in the upcoming presidential election. The most likely price for that would be the republic's even stronger dependence on Moscow. <GÓR>

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