2009-09-23 | Joanna Hyndle

The Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on 16 September visited Vilnius having received an invitation from Lithuanian business circles; he opened the Belarus Expo 2009 exhibition and its accompanying forum 'Belarus and the Baltic Sea States.' This was the second visit to an EU member state (after his trip to the Vatican and Italy) by the Belarusian leader, who had been previously isolated by the Western community. Despite protests from the Belarusian opposition and Lithuanian non-governmental organisations which support it, Lukashenka was received by the most senior authorities of Lithuania, and the meetings were held in a good atmosphere.
This was Lukashenka's first visit to Lithuania over the past eleven years and it was desired by both sides. Lithuania wanted first of all to start a dialogue for economic co-operation in transit and energy sector, which business circles influential in this country had insisted on. In political terms, Vilnius has sent a message that the resumed dialogue between Lithuanian authorities and the Belarusian leader will contribute to Belarus's rapprochement with the European Union. For Lukashenka, who wants international legitimisation of his regime and approval for its continuation, his trip to Vilnius was a considerable success.

Economic co-operation as the key issue

The main promoter of the idea to invite Lukashenka to Vilnius was the influential business lobby, whose pivotal figure is Bronislovas Lubys (one of the richest businessmen engaged in the petrochemical industry and owner of transloading firms in Klaipeda port), president of the Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists. They want the Lithuanian government to improve relations with Russia and Belarus. The Confederation's intention is to obtain personal guarantees from Lukashenka for the safety of Lithuanian business in Belarus (Lithuanian businessmen complain about the high risk of investing in that country). Lubys is also joining the rivalry to take over the handling of Belarusian export and import using the Klaipeda port, which he controls and which is the leading transloading port in all the three Baltic states. Klaipeda's key foreign partners are first of all Belarus (approximately 55% of transit shipments in 2008), Russia (approximately 33% in 2008) and Kazakhstan (approximately 6%; in the case of this country, much depends on the transit policy of Russia). The rapid decrease in the transloading of Russian goods in 2009 (by 25%) and the recent statement by the Russian deputy prime minister Sergey Ivanov, according to which Russia will stop using the transit services of Baltic ports and start using its own (Kaliningrad and Primorsk) in the next 2 or 3 years have forced Lithuanian business to increase their efforts with regard to their Belarusian partners, part of whom today choose Kaliningrad and Latvia's Ventspils.
In Vilnius, Lukashenka was trying to present Belarus as a promising economic partner for Lithuania. He declared Belarus's support for the motorway running from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, he offered Lithuanians the possibilities to invest in the shares of the Naftan refinery and the petrochemical works Polimir, and even to finance a separate reactor to produce energy dedicated to the needs of Lithuania in the new Belarusian nuclear power plant to be built 30 km away from Vilnius. He also offered agency in the transit of Ukrainian electric energy, which is cheaper and an alternative to Russian electric energy, after the old power plant in Ignalina is closed three months later. The reaction of the Lithuanian authorities to the Belarusian offer was quite reserved; Lithuania has still not given up the idea of building its own nuclear power plant. In turn, it would be interested in buying Ukrainian energy, provided that the Belarusian agency did not significantly increase the price. The other proposals were rather abstract.
The Lithuanian authorities had expected that the meeting in Vilnius would seal the signature of the agreement on small border traffic prepared by Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius's cabinet. However, Lukashenka asked to postpone its finalisation. Belarus may fear that the proximity of Vilnius, which is located almost in the frontier area, will cause a flooding of the Belarusian market with Lithuanian goods. On the other hand, Minsk wants Vilnius's support during the negotiations of trade regulations to open the EU market to Belarusian products.

The political aspect in the background

Lithuania was interested in a resumption of official dialogue with Lukashenka, which had been cut off due to EU restrictions, and criticised the unsuccessful policy of isolation. Although informal meetings were held with Belarusian officials (even at the prime ministerial level), EU restrictions were not violated. At the same time, in parallel, an active policy for the democratisation of Belarus was conducted (support for the opposition and social programmes promoting the democratic ideas). Lithuanian authorities wanted the international community to see Lithuania as a country which is best prepared to mediate in the dialogue between the West and Belarus.
The softening of the EU's policy on Minsk and the Belarusian leader's desire to establish closer relations with the West encouraged the Lithuanian government to make the recent effort to resume political relations at the highest level for the sake of the economic interests of their country. However, by concentrating on the economic aspect of co-operation and in fact disregarding the opinion of the Belarusian opposition, the Lithuanian government undermined the reliability of its previous policy line towards Belarus. Thus, during the negotiations concerning Lukashenka's visit to Vilnius, the Lithuanian leaders disregarded the protests of the Belarusian opposition, and President Dalia Grybauskaite did not receive the families of opposition activists who had gone missing in Belarus. Moreover, Lukashenka was not asked to offer assistance in clearing up the circumstances of death of a Lithuanian diplomat in Belarus or to extradite the retired general Vladimir Uskhopchik, who lives in Belarus and who has been charged with having given the order to shoot against Lithuanians gathered in front of the Vilnius TV tower on 13 January 1991.
Meanwhile, Lukashenka did not show any will to change his previous policy line in Vilnius; he was admonishing the EU and manoeuvring between the desire for rapprochement with the EU and keeping good relations with Russia. Thus he could see his visit to Vilnius as his propaganda success; he has used the warming of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations to facilitate his future contacts with the EU and to reinforce his negotiating position in dealings with Moscow.

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