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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 30(180) | 2009-09-09
Also available in PDF

Analyses

  • The IMF becomes the main credit provider for Belarus

    The second IMF mission tasked with assessing the implementation of the stand-by programme granted to Belarus early this year completed its work on 2 September. Despite numerous reservations, the IMF experts have expressed a generally positive assessment of the measures undertaken by the Belarusian authorities, on the basis of which another tranche of the loan is to be paid out shortly. Moreover, it is possible that next year the Fund will extend the programme's duration. The IMF has thus become the main source of credit support for Belarus and the main guarantor of the stability of the country's finance system. Even though the Belarusian authorities have already implemented some provisional measures recommended by the Fund, and have committed themselves to implementing more thorough changes by the end of the year, it should not be expected that the commitments will be realised in full, because of the regime's aversion to thorough reforms. Besides, even with the conditions imposed on Belarus, the IMF's position towards Minsk is relatively mild, possibly because of the geopolitical interests of some of the IMF member states.

Events

 

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Russia warns Georgia against armed conflict on the Black Sea
EASTWEEK

2009-09-09

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On 3 September, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Andrei Nesterenko stated that the Georgian coastguard's practice of seizing commercial vessels going to or from Abkhazia threatened to increase tension in the region, and could lead to "serious armed incidents". The day before, the Abkhazian leader Sergei Bagapsh announced that he had given an order for Georgian warships entering "the territorial waters of Abkhazia" to be destroyed, and described Georgia's activities as "piracy". The likelihood of armed incidents in the waters in question is indeed quite high, although at this stage it does not seem that they could serve as a pretext for a new Russian-Georgian war.

According to Russian data, since the beginning of this year the Georgians have seized 23 vessels on the way to or from the breakaway region of Abkhazia on charges of smuggling or navigation in the waters of occupied territories. On this basis, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Georgia of violation of the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, and of making attempts to "forcefully resolve territorial issues".Tbilisi treats the coastal waters of Abkhazia (as well as its land territory) as an integral part of Georgia, and states the Georgian services seizing foreign ships calling at the port of Sukhumi, or arresting and fining their crews, are just enforcing the law.If the incidents continue, the Kremlin may opt for a demonstration of force, for example by 'rescuing' a ship seized by the Georgians; on 30 April, Moscow and Sukhumi concluded an agreement on the common protection of borders. <GÓR>

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