2009-08-12 | Sławomir Matuszak

The early parliamentary election in Moldova on 29 July has ended with the victory of the democratic opposition. The Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM), which has ruled the country until now, has failed to win a majority in the parliament for the first time since 2001. On 8 August, the four opposition parties (PLDM, PL, AMN and PD) announced that they had concluded a coalition agreement and intended to form the government. However, the opposition does not have a sufficient number of votes in parliament to elect the president, and therefore cannot fully take over power.
The two most probable scenarios in this situation are as follows: If the opposition and the PCRM leadership reach agreement, or if some Communist deputies move over to the opposition, the liberal-social democratic coalition may form the government and, possibly, elect the president. If there is no agreement between the opposition and the Communists concerning the election of the president, the political impasse may continue, as a result of which the Communists will stay in power until the next election in 2010.

The campaign and the ballot

The early parliamentary election was held in the aftermath of the political crisis that followed the election on 5 April 2009. The united opposition then managed to block the election of the PCRM-designated president. In accordance with the constitution, after two failed attempts at electing the head of state President Vladimir Voronin disbanded parliament and announced an early parliamentary election on 29 July 2009.
The election campaign was exceptionally aggressive by Moldovan standards. The Communists extensively resorted to means of administrative pressure and used their monopoly on the television to brutally attack political opponents and accuse them of serving Romania's interests. The police openly supported the PCRM and often intimidated opposition supporters. Nevertheless, the election itself involved no major violations of the rules and was recognised by the opposition as fairer than the April vote.
As a result of the election, the PCRM lost the majority in the parliament for the first time since 2001. The four opposition parties jointly gained 53 out of 101 mandates and are in a position to form the government by themselves. This is possible thanks to Marian Lupu, the new Democratic Party leader, a popular politician who quit the PCRM before the election and joined the opposition. At this stage there is no indication that Lupu could form a coalition with the Communists, as it was suspected before the election.

The situation after the election

Under the Moldovan constitution, parliament elects the president by a majority of 61 votes. Therefore, the opposition parties will not be able to elect the head of state without the support of at least 8 Communist deputies. Only the president - and the Communist leader is still the acting president of Moldova - may designate a candidate for prime minister after consultations with the parliamentary groups; the PM is then elected by a majority of 52 votes.
Immediately after the election, the leaders of the four opposition parties announced that they would form a coalition and jointly govern the country. On 8 August they signed a declaration on the creation of an Alliance for European Integration, which lays down the coalition's programme and envisages, inter alia, a restoration of the rule of law in Moldova, the decentralisation of power, measures to combat the crisis and a strengthening of efforts aimed at integration with the European Union. No details have been revealed so far about the composition of the future cabinet.
The current economic crisis, exacerbated by the government's irresponsible finance policy during the election campaign, as well as the forecasts predicting a sudden economic slump this autumn, are strongly influencing the political scenarios that the Moldovan political elite is considering.

Possible scenarios

An agreement between the opposition and the Communists is possible. Mark Tkachuk, former advisor to President Voronin and an influential PCRM politician, has said that his party is considering supporting a neutral presidential candidate from outside the opposition leadership circle. The PCRM hopes that a coalition formed by four parties with considerably diverging programmes will be unable to last. If the opposition government indeed turns out to be short-lived and incapable of radically changing the system created by the Communists, the PCRM will win the next election.
However, this scenario involves some risk for the PCRM. The new government will probably receive some assistance from the IMF and the EU, which will soften the impact of the crisis and help the new leadership survive through the first, most difficult period. Moreover, if the Communists have to give up all power and if the opposition proves sufficiently determined and effective, the PCRM will lose its monopoly on business, electronic media and the institutions of force.
If, on the other hand, the parties reach no agreement, the situation that followed the April elections will repeat itself. If no president is elected, a new parliamentary election will be held in early 2010 (under the constitution, parliament may be disbanded only once a year) and Vladimir Voronin will stay in office as acting president.
In that case Voronin will either designate an opposition politician as prime minister and then try to blame all economic difficulties on him or her while at the same time preventing the new PM from actually taking over control in the state, or keep the current head of government Zinaida Greceani as acting PM. In the latter case, while the Communists stay in power, they risk being held accountable for the economic and political crisis and, consequently, their popularity will erode further.
In the present situation every scenario involves the risk of the PCRM losing power. The key factors in this context will be the efficacy and stability of the opposition coalition, as well as the possible assistance offered to Moldova by the EU and international finance organisations.

Appendix 1
Results of the Moldovan parliamentary election on 29 July 2009

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