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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 24(174) | 2009-07-01

Analyses

  • China's grant of a US$4 billion loan to Turkmenistan led to its indirectly becoming engaged in the Russian-Turkmen gas conflict, which started this March and has resulted in Turkmenistan withholding supplies of its gas to Russia, among other consequences. The Chinese financial assistance has significantly reinforced the position of Turkmenistan (which has been deprived of a large part of incomes from gas exports) in its negotiations with Russia concerning conditions of renewing supplies of its gas. At the same time, China's engagement in Turkmenistan is another proof of intensifying Russian-Chinese rivalry in Central Asia.

 

The International Monetary Fund increases support for Belarus
EASTWEEK

2009-07-01

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On 29 June, the Board of Directors of the IMF approved a decision to make US$679 million available to Belarus as the second tranche of the loan of nearly US$2.5 billion which it granted at the beginning of this year. Moreover, the credit line for Belarus has been increased by US$1 billion, as a consequence of which the total value of the loan will reach nearly US$3.5 billion. This means significant financial support for Minsk as it confronts the consequences of the global economic crisis, and at the same time a sign of approval for its previous anti-crisis policy.

The IMF's management stated that its decision resulted from a positive evaluation of the anti-crisis measures taken by the Belarusian government. Special attention was paid to compliance with budgetary discipline, the limitation of wage rises, the adoption of more restrictive monetary and loan policies, and flexible activity on the currency market. At the same time, they emphasised the need to take further actions to liberalise the economy, including increasing the independence of the central bank, ceasing central regulation of prices and wages, and making the Belarusian economy and legal system ready for large-scale privatisation. The IMF is likely to make the availability of the remaining tranches of the loan conditional on the fulfilment of these requirements.

The Fund's financial support is vital for Minsk, whose financial liquidity has improved as a result. This may also help the Belarusian government in its negotiations with Russia, which has been demanding the repayment of nearly US$240 million of debt, which (in Moscow's opinion) has resulted from the payment of the lower price of US$150 per 1000 m3 for the Russian gas between January - April 2009 instead of the US$210 price which applied in those months. <kam>