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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 18(168) | 2009-05-13

Analyses

  •   On 8 May, the IMF's Board of Directors decided to pay the second tranche of the stand-by loan (US$2.8 billion) to Ukraine, and announced that another tranche of around US$3 billion would be paid after 15 June. The IMF had eased its preconditions for continued co-operation with the Ukrainian government, and allowed it more freedom in using the funds. By facilitating the repayment of Ukraine's foreign debt, the IMF has also made it much easier for Yulia Tymoshenko to finance the state budget expenses. This gives the Ukrainian government more room for manoeuvre in the deep economic crisis, and may to some extent strengthen PM Tymoshenko's recently eroding position as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

 

The Georgian issue in Russian-US relations
EASTWEEK

2009-05-13

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In an interview for the Japanese media given on 7 May, Russia's prime minister Vladimir Putin criticised the NATO exercise in Georgia, and said it sent a signal contrary to the USA's declarations about its willingness to change its policy towards Russia. On the same day, the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in Washington that the Russia-USA dialogue on arms control could not be hindered by the Georgian issue. The two statements indicate that Moscow is undecided about whether or not it should make real improvement in Russian-US relations conditional on the USA significantly restricting its co-operation with Georgia.

While commenting on the prospects for an improvement in the Russian-American relations in the above-mentioned interview, PM Putin suggested that it was the United States that was more interested in better bilateral relations. He said that in this context, the NATO exercise in Georgia was a signal which contradicted Washington's declarations. At the same time, he admitted that the change in US policy trends could take time.

These statements indicate that Russia is continuing to pressure the USA to restrict its co-operation with Georgia (especially in the security field) and withdraw its support for Saakashvili. At the same time, Moscow seems to be undecided about how much significance should be attached to this issue in bilateral relations, and to what extent it should be treated as a test of the USA's readiness to recognise Russian interests in the CIS area. <MaK>