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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 18(168) | 2009-05-13
Also available in PDF

Analyses

  • IMF provides support to Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko

      On 8 May, the IMF's Board of Directors decided to pay the second tranche of the stand-by loan (US$2.8 billion) to Ukraine, and announced that another tranche of around US$3 billion would be paid after 15 June. The IMF had eased its preconditions for continued co-operation with the Ukrainian government, and allowed it more freedom in using the funds. By facilitating the repayment of Ukraine's foreign debt, the IMF has also made it much easier for Yulia Tymoshenko to finance the state budget expenses. This gives the Ukrainian government more room for manoeuvre in the deep economic crisis, and may to some extent strengthen PM Tymoshenko's recently eroding position as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election.

Events

 

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Diplomatic games over Nagorno-Karabakh
EASTWEEK

2009-05-13

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On 7 May, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev, met in Prague within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group (led by USA, Russia, France) to discuss a solution to the Karabakh conflict. The meeting did not produce any tangible results. On the same day, both politicians held talks with the Turkish president Abdullah Gul, who suggested that talks about the conflict should be initiated in a four-party format involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia. The current tough diplomatic game over Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that its outcome will largely define the positions of the USA, Russia and Turkey in the Southern Caucasus.

Despite optimistic comments by Matthew Bryza, the US co-chair of the Minsk Group, who said that the Sargsyan-Aliyev had been constructive, they failed to bring the two sides closer. Bryza's statement has been strongly criticised by the Azeri side and questioned by French representatives. The current US policy on the Karabakh conflict is causing growing frustration in Baku. The Americans are not proposing any new solution to the conflict's parties, and instead are focusing on blocking the Turkish-Russian initiative and trying to activate the Minsk Group. This was the reason why the Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers were invited to visit Washington in the first days of May. Greater US involvement in the conflict resolution would be in the interests of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as those two countries are being subjected to growing pressure from Turkey and Russia. If the Karabakh conflict is solved on the terms defined by Ankara and Moscow, Armenia and Azerbaijan will become permanently dependent on Turkey and Russia. Given the active involvement of Turkey and Russia in the Karabakh issue, and the inefficacy of US policy, the Turkish-Russian initiative may gain prominence at the expense of the current format of talks within the framework of the OSCE. This would entail a serious weakening of US influence and a strengthening of Moscow and Ankara's positions in the region. <mf>

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