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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 38(147) | 2008-11-26
Full text available in PDF

Analyses

  • Gazprom cuts its gas production projections

    On 21 November, Gazprom reduced its gas production projections for 2008 by around 10 billion m3. The main reason for this is the economic crisis which has led to decreasing gas consumption in Russia and in the EU. These negative trends may bring a positive short-term effect for the gas monopoly, as they may delay the occurrence of a gas deficit which had already been expected in 2010. However, in the longer term, lower revenues from gas sales will exacerbate the problem of insufficient investments in gas fields, thus increasing the risk of a deficit of Russian gas on both the domestic and European markets.

  • The Belarusian government's anti-crisis measures

    The global financial crisis is increasingly affecting the Belarusian economy. At the same time, economic pressure from the Kremlin is mounting, as Russia makes its economic support conditional on Minsk's accepting deeper dependence on Russia.

Events

 

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Ukraine's parliament paralysed
EASTWEEK

2008-11-26

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The Ukrainian parliament failed to elect a new speaker on 18 November. None of the proposed candidates had sufficient support, and so a decision was taken not to hold the vote. The plenary session has been postponed until 2 December. Since the deputy speakers are not empowered to sign the parliament's documents, the Ukrainian parliament can now no longer act.

 

When Arseniy Yatsenyuk was dismissed from the position of parliamentary speaker on 12 November, it turned out that none of the major political parties had a ready plan for further action. Consultations were held concerning three candidates: Oleksander Lavrynovych (the current deputy speaker, and a member of the Party of Regions), Ivan Plushch (a close aide of President Yushchenko's, and a member of Our Ukraine) and Volodymyr Lytvyn (the leader of the smallest parliamentary faction, and a former speaker in 2002-2006), but these failed to produce any results.

The fact that the parliament has been incapacitated seems to benefit Yulia Tymoshenko more than anyone else, as it makes it impossible to table a proposal concerning a vote of no confidence against the prime minister, which the Party of Regions had been planning to do, according to reliable sources. However, if no agreement is reached concerning the appointment of a new speaker, an election will be the only alternative, which would not be in Tymoshenko's interest. <TAO>

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