2008-11-19 | Marcin Kaczmarski

The EU-Russia summit in Nice on 14 November has been a double political success for Moscow. The EU decided to resume negotiations on a new agreement with Russia (PCA 2), which Brussels had suspended following the Georgian conflict. In addition, during the summit's press conference, French president Nicolas Sarkozy quite unexpectedly stated his support for Russia's proposal to open a debate on possible changes in the European security system (Sarkozy also criticised the missile shield project in his statement).

The Nice meeting has demonstrated the efficacy of Russia's tactics of creating divisions between the EU states and the USA (especially with regard to security issues) and taking advantage of the differing ambitions and interests of different EU member states.

The PCA 2 negotiations resumed (with the missile shield question in the background)

The European Union, represented at the summit by the French president Nicolas Sarkozy and the European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, decided that Russia had complied with most of the conditions of the ceasefire with Georgia, which were negotiated by the EU and signed on 12 August and 12 September. Consequently, the EU decided to resume negotiations concerning a new legal framework for the relations between the EU and Russia (as recommended by the EU foreign ministers on 10 November). Nevertheless, the reopening of the PCA 2 negotiations (the suspension of which has in fact been the only practical sanction imposed by the EU on Russia since the Georgian crisis) is of very little practical importance. The talks will probably take much more time to complete, and the agreement negotiated will have to be approved by the 27 member states.

During the press conference, the French president spoke favourably about Russia's proposals concerning security. Sarkozy said that the deployment of the missile shield would not improve Europe's security (he also criticised Russia's plans to deploy short-range Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad oblast). He expressed support for the adoption of a new European security framework, and suggested that an OSCE summit on the subject could be convened in mid-2009 as a starting point for further discussions.

The sources of Russia's success

During the Nice meeting, Russia scored easy victories in two separate matters by means of two different strategies. As regards talks with the EU on the new agreement (PCA 2), Moscow created the impression that it does not place much importance on the new accord (and it appears that Russia indeed does not attach any great significance to the negotiations), and that its suspension is the EU's problem alone. With regard to security, on the other hand, Moscow has been trying to convince the European states by its actions and declarations that its opposition to the installation of the US missile shield is serious, and that Europe would pay the price for the USA's actions.

In both cases, Russia's success has been possible mainly owing to controversies existing between the EU member states (especially with regard to European security) and their ambitions to shape the Union's external policy. France is attempting to retain the power to influence this policy even after the end of its presidency, and to make the EU a 'third power' capable of mediating between Russia and the USA. France's position has been a kind of response to Dmitry Medvedev's declaration that Russia could give up its plans to deploy the Iskander missiles if the US decided not to install the missile shield in Central Europe.

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