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EASTWEEK
Weekly analytical newsletter on Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Central Asia (also available in Polish as Tydzień na Wschodzie)

Contents

No. 31(140) | 2008-10-02
Also available in PDF

Analyses

  • Belarus: the outcome of elections does not preclude co-operation with the West

    The elections to the House of Representatives (the lower house of the Belarusian parliament), which ended on 28 September, did not meet democratic standards, as the initial OSCE report has expressed. The ballot was marred by numerous violations of the electoral laws, many instances of tampering with the vote count have been detected, and none of the democratic candidates succeeded in entering parliament.

  • Latin America as Moscow's bargaining chip

    Since the war with Georgia, Russia has significantly changed its policy towards certain Latin American states. So far, Moscow had been mainly interested in gaining economic benefits from those countries, while its political presence had remained limited. In recent weeks, however, Russia has decided to step up its political and military co-operation with the countries of the region, and to give that co-operation a wider propaganda dimension. This tendency is particularly apparent in the case of Venezuela (which has been offered a loan for the purchase of arms, and will hold a joint maritime exercise with Russia), as well as Nicaragua and Cuba.

Events

 

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Russia adopts a tougher line on the Black Sea Fleet
EASTWEEK

2008-10-02

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On 25 September, another round of consultations took place between the Foreign Ministries of Ukraine and Russia, concerning the terms and conditions of the Black Sea Fleet's stationing in Crimea. The position of the Russian delegation, and especially the statements made by its head, indicate that Moscow is paying no heed to the arguments of its weaker partner.

In the course of the consultations, Kyiv put forward a proposal to discuss the new terms for the Fleet's movements across state borders, as laid down in the presidential decrees of 13 August 2008, but the proposal was rejected by Russia (albeit not directly). Ukraine has also once again expressed its willingness to sign an agreement regulating the Fleet's operations in crisis conditions, and Russia has agreed to consider the proposal. The Russians presented the topics they wanted to discuss during subsequent rounds of consultations. At the same time, the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs accused Ukraine of politicising the question of the Fleet's stationing and of making unilateral actions in this matter, which it deemed to have the tone of an ultimatum being set.
The head of the Russian delegation, ambassador-at-large Vladimir Dorokhin, said that Moscow's position on Ukraine would depend on how loyal the Ukrainian authorities are willing to be towards the Black Sea Fleet. He also said that increasing the charges for the lease of the bases was not within the remit of the Ukrainian authorities and depended on Moscow's approval.
It appears that Moscow is taking advantage of the weakness of the Ukrainian leadership, which is entangled in internal struggles, and sees the negotiations as an opportunity to dictate the conditions of the Black Sea Fleet's stationing; furthermore, Moscow appears to be combining the issue of the Fleet with other aspects of its co-operation with Ukraine. <AnG>

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