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Kazakhstan - Constitutional amendments
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On 22 May, President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed the draft constitutional amendments adopted by the parliament on 18 May. At the last moment, a provision allowing Nazarbayev to run for president for an unlimited number of times was added to the amendments proposed by the president, which according to official declarations were designed to strengthen the parliament and further the democratisation of Kazakhstan.
In the political life of Kazakhstan, where President Nazarbayev holds an unquestionably dominant position, the amendments - which the ruling group advertised as revolutionary - in fact change little, and the provision enabling the president to stay in office indefinitely (which has caused much controversy in the West) merely sanctions the existing state of affairs. The modifications are of purely propagandistic significance: they are intended to demonstrate that Kazakhstan is making efforts towards democratisation (by strengthening the parliament), while at the same time emphasising the country's autonomy in the field of internal politics (allowing Nazarbayev to stay in office for successive terms), the strong position of the president and his full control of political processes in the country (the amendments suspend the disputes concerning the succession of power).
The amendments, which had been announced long ago, are being presented as an element of the political reforms aimed at bringing Kazakhstan closer to Western standards, thus increasing its chances of taking the OSCE leadership in 2009. Hence the shortening of the president's term from 7 to 5 years (this provision will take effect after the end of the current term, i.e. as of 2012), increasing the number of MPs from 116 to 154, the introduction of a proportional representation system for parliamentary elections, and the provision requiring the candidate for prime minister nominated by the president to be approved by a majority in the Majilis (parliament). At its second reading, an amendment was added to the package of modifications presented by the president, under which the provision imposing a limit of two terms as president does not apply to Nursultan Nazarbayev. This enables the current president to stay in office for life.
The propaganda campaign in Kazakhstan, which emphasises that the constitutional amendments further the progress of democratisation, as well as the comments in Western press, which reduce the entire package of changes to just the one which allows President Nazarbayev to stay in office indefinitely, both overlook the most important facts. The amendments concerning the parliament's role in fact change very little, and so does the provision concerning president Nazarbayev, which is simply a demonstration of his power, and in effect suspends the disputes over his succession.
Because of the way presidential power is exercised in Kazakhstan, any legislative changes are purely formal. Nursultan Nazarbayev fully controls the power apparatus (including the parliament), and has a decisive say in the legislative process. He also controls the security services and the army. Moreover, he remains very popular in Kazakhstan, and so extending his rule beyond 2012 at any time has never been a real problem. President Nazarbayev has not declared that he would use the right the parliament has awarded to him. Nevertheless, by signing the package of amendments he sent a clear signal that speculation concerning his potential successor and the behind-the-scenes games over his legacy are premature, and that he is in such a strong position that he will stay in power if only he so wishes.
The fact that President Nazarbayev has signed the amendments is also another signal to the international public opinion indicating that Kazakhstan's potential and geopolitical situation permit the country to disregard the opinions of others and decide for itself what democracy means. While aspiring to take the leadership of the OSCE, Kazakhstan seems to be emphasising that the West cannot dictate how the country runs its internal affairs, and that the question of constitutional amendments should not overshadow Kazakhstan's potential or its stabilising role in the region.