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CeWeekly
Weekly analytical newsletter on the Baltic States, Central Europe, Germany and the Balkans (also available in Polish as BEST)

Contents

No. 12(24) | 2009-03-25
Also available in PDF

Analyses

  • Czech Republic: Topolanek's government is dismissed

    On 24 March, the Czech parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the government headed by Mirek Topolanek. The entire opposition, including Social Democrats (CSSD) and Communists (KSCM), and four former members of the government coalition parties, the right-wing ODS and the Green Party, voted for the dismissal of the government. Topolanek's government is likely to carry on its function at least until the end of the Czech presidency of the EU, and new elections will be held either in autumn 2009 or at the beginning of 2010.
    The fall of the government will weaken the Czech Republic's position during its presidency and reduce its chances of carrying out its ambitious plans. Nevertheless, it seems that Prague will cope with its tasks at the technical work level and instead will find it difficult to push through its key political initiatives.

Events

 

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Hungarian Prime Minister's tactical resignation
CeWeekly

2009-03-25 | Mariusz Bocian

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Hungary's Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany announced his resignation in parliament on 23 March. This has to be seen as a tactical move aimed at maintaining the political initiative, especially considering the rapidly shrinking support for himself and his Socialist Party (MSzP). The Socialists want to establish a technical government based on a broader political consensus, which would assume the responsibility for the worsening socio-economic situation in the country.

The Prime Minister's decision is an effect of political calculation, taking into account the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year. The strategy adopted by the ocialists assumes that the Prime Minister will be dismissed as a consequence of a constructive vote of no confidence. Then a technical cabinet will be nominated which will accept social and political expenses of unpopular anti-crisis measures. The socialists want thus to avoid early elections and minimise the size of their expected defeat in parliamentary elections next year.
The socialists and the centre-left liberals (SzDSz), who were members of the same government coalition until spring 2008, will control the nomination of the new government. What the two parties have in common now, as with the opposition conservative Democratic Forum (MDF), is their fear of early elections. The right-wing Fidesz is the only party to want early elections (according to polls, it could win even up to 2/3 of the seats, while the liberals and the conservatives would not enter the parliament). It also cannot be ruled out that Gyurcsany will keep his post, if the parties are unable to reach a consensus about who should be his successor.
It seems that the new government supported by the MSzP and the SzDSz will grant highest priority to minimising the extent of social dissatisfaction; therefore, no radical anti-crisis actions should be expected. <boc, rafas>

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