2009-03-25 | Mariusz Bocian and Rafał Sadowski

On 24 March, the Czech parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the government headed by Mirek Topolanek. The entire opposition, including Social Democrats (CSSD) and Communists (KSCM), and four former members of the government coalition parties, the right-wing ODS and the Green Party, voted for the dismissal of the government. Topolanek's government is likely to carry on its function at least until the end of the Czech presidency of the EU, and new elections will be held either in autumn 2009 or at the beginning of 2010.
The fall of the government will weaken the Czech Republic's position during its presidency and reduce its chances of carrying out its ambitious plans. Nevertheless, it seems that Prague will cope with its tasks at the technical work level and instead will find it difficult to push through its key political initiatives.

The causes of the government's dismissal

The minority government led by Mirek Topolanek, consisting of the right-wing ODS and two minor parties, the Green Party and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CzSL), had been facing the risk of instability since its establishment in January 2007. The cabinet, which was created seven months after the elections, was able to function owing to a minimal parliamentary majority of several votes achieved thanks to support from former members of the CSSD.
The motion of no confidence against the government was brought by the largest opposition party, the CSSD, on allegations that Mirek Topolanek had attempted to put pressure on Czech Television not to broadcast a documentary showing the abuses of MP Peter Wolf, former member of the CSSD, who currently supports the government. The Social Democratic Party, which is the main rival of the right-wing ODS in the struggle for power, had sought the dismissal of Topolanek's government from the beginning of its operation. The recent vote of no confidence was the fifth in a row. The KSCM, which opposes the right by tradition, voted against the government. However, the dismissal of the Topolanek-led government by a minimal possible majority of votes (101 out of 200) was possible only because two members of the ODS (expelled from the club after the voting) and two former members of the Green Party (in conflict with the leaders of their former party) voted against him. The main argument raised by the socialists in the parliamentary debate against Topolanek's government was the lack of the Prime Minister's engagement in the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

Consequences of the government's dismissal

The dismissal of the government happened at a very difficult moment for the Czech Republic, in the middle of its EU presidency and during a serious economic slump. Prague's activities have been sceptically evaluated, especially by France and Germany, which have criticised it for the way of handling the economic crisis. The downfall of the government will certainly impair the successfulness of the Czech presidency. The expected weakening of the Czech Republic's negotiating position may provoke other countries to intensify efforts to take over the initiative in the EU. As a consequence of a weaker Czech initiative, Prague's top priority areas of activity such as energy policy, the Eastern Partnership and overcoming the economic crisis (including opposing the protectionist actions demanded by Western European countries), which also serve Polish interests, will lose significance. Turbulence in Czech politics may also affect the economic situation in the region. Political instability in the Czech Republic (and in Hungary) may be interpreted by foreign investors as a negative sign for the entire Central European region.
In the long term, an unsuccessful Czech presidency may cause a negative perception of Central European countries as ones which have no sufficient potential to effectively handle the EU presidency due to the unstable internal political situation in such countries.

Possible scenarios

In accordance with the constitution, following the government's dismissal (on 26 March), the president will appoint a new candidate for prime minister, who will have 30 days to form a new cabinet. Therefore, further development of the situation will depend on President Vaclav Klaus's decision. The following two scenarios seem the most realistic.
According to the first one, the mission to create the government is entrusted again to Mirek Topolanek as the leader of a party which has the most numerous parliamentary representation. This would certainly involve lengthy negotiations with potential coalition partners, which could easily end in failure. A minority cabinet may find it very difficult to govern. However, it cannot be ruled out that President Klaus will appoint another politician from the ODS as a candidate for prime minister.
According to the second scenario, early elections will be scheduled (the currently scheduled time is June 2010). However, the major parties are strongly divided about the timing of such early elections. The CSSD would like them to be held in autumn 2009 or spring 2010, while the ODS insists on summer 2009.
Recent polls promise victory to the CSSD, which is supported by nearly 35% of the respondents, while the ODS enjoys a 31% support. However, the support for the latter is growing because of the positive perception of the presidency by the public. No matter which of the two parties forms the government, the new government will have the same problems as the present coalition because it will also be deprived of a significant majority in the parliament.

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