Moldova: Vladimir Voronin's gambit

On 11 September, Vladimir Voronin stepped down as the president of Moldova, enabling Mihai Ghimpu, the parliament speaker and leader of the Liberal Party, to take over as acting president. As a result, the Alliance for European Integration created in August by the Liberal Democratic Party, the Liberal Party, the Democratic Party and the Party Alliance Our Moldova, which has a parliamentary majority (53 out of 101 seats) may now form the new government.
However, the parliamentary representation of the Communists (PCRM), which holds 48 seats, may block the election of the new president (for which a majority of 61 votes is required), as a result of which the parliament will have to be disbanded and new parliamentary elections held in late February or early March 2010. Two other scenarios are also possible, though less likely. In one, the Alliance will persuade at least eight Communist deputies to support the Alliance's presidential candidate, the Democratic Party leader Marian Lupu. In the other, the Alliance and the PCRM will reach a compromise to nominate a common presidential candidate.

Voronin's gambit

Voronin, whose presidential term ended in April, could continue to act as president until his successor has been elected and sworn in. In this way, he could prevent the Alliance for European Integration from forming a government. By stepping down and facilitating the creation of a government by the Alliance, Voronin hopes that by the time the election is held, the Alliance will have disappointed the voters and lost popularity, because it will not have been able to cope with the deteriorating economic situation in Moldova, and could have fallen victim to conflicts between its member parties. Voronin's strategy is risky because, having moved into opposition, the Communist Party will no longer be able to use the state apparatus for campaign purposes, and may lose its dominant position in the media. However, Voronin does not think highly about the opposition's capabilities and - after holding almost unlimited power for eight years - he does not seem capable of compromise.

Alternative scenarios

The Alliance for European Integration hopes that some of the Communist deputies, who would be unwilling to run the risks involved in a new election, will support Marian Lupu as the presidential candidate. This is the ideal scenario for the Alliance, although it is unlikely to become reality nor is former president Petru Lucinschi's proposal to hold a referendum to restore general presidential elections (which would require a constitutional amendment). The Alliance has been using the latter scenario as an instrument to put pressure on the Communist deputies.
It is even less probable that the Alliance and the PCRM will designate a common presidential candidate. In conditions of high political polarisation, it will be difficult to find a candidate that both sides could trust. Besides, this would require the arrangements concerning the division of posts among the Alliance's member parties (which have been negotiated with much difficulty) to be modified, and also that Lupu should give up his presidential aspirations (it was because of his ambitions that he broke away from the PCRM and Voronin last June).

Challenges faced by the new leadership

The greatest challenge for the new government comes from the exacerbating economic crisis and the budget difficulties it will cause. Moldova's GDP will decrease by around 12% in 2009 compared to the previous year. The budget will be particularly severely affected by the 36.6% decrease in imports in the first half of this year, which will entail a similar decrease in customs revenue accounting for around 70% of the state budget's total revenue. In addition, money transfers from Moldovans working abroad, which accounted for one-third of Moldova's GDP last year, have decreased by a third. As a result, the budget deficit is estimated to reach 4 billion Moldovan lei (around US$360 million), around 9.4% of the GDP. In August, the government borrowed US$200 million from commercial banks to cover its current spending.
The new government will therefore have to reach agreement with the IMF and the EU quickly in order to cover the budget deficit. In the new political situation, the loan agreement with Russia, under which Moscow promised a US$500 million loan to Voronin last June, is unlikely to be finalised. Russia will not be interested in supporting a pro-Western government in Moldova, and the government itself may be concerned that Russia's loan would come with certain political conditions.
Another difficult challenge concerns taking real control over the power apparatus, especially the prosecution authorities, the police and the security apparatus, and taking away the CPRM's dominant influence on the public media.
It is also possible that Transnistria will stage provocations in order to create difficulties for the new leadership, which is perceived in Russia as pro-Romanian and anti-Russian. For instance, the chief of the Dubăsari separatist administration has announced that initiative groups would be formed to call for the incorporation into Transnistria of five villages on the left bank of the Dniester (in the demilitarised zone), which remain under the jurisdiction of Moldova.
In order to succeed, the Alliance needs to maintain its internal unity, obtain financial aid from abroad within a short timeframe, tackle potential ethnic conflicts and avoid any tension between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Otherwise, Vladimir Voronin's Communist party may be back in power within six months.

Witold Rodkiewicz


Appendix

Member parties of the Alliance for European Integration

Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova - 18 seats
A new party created in 2007 by the young entrepreneur Vlad Filat. The party is pro-European and pro-Romanian, with a liberal and pragmatic outlook, strong backing from experts, and a professional team with administrative and political experience.

Liberal Party - 15 seats
Led by Mihai Ghimpu, one of the leaders of the Moldovan National Front from the perestroika period, the Liberal Party is pro-Romanian and pro-European with some pro-unionist concepts, and has a liberal programme.

Party Alliance Our Moldova (Alianta Moldova Noastra - AMN) - 7 seats
Led by Serafim Urecheanu, the only former middle-level functionary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union among the Alliance leaders. The AMN is a centrist, pro-European and pro-Romanian party, although it has a record of co-operation with the Kremlin (the 2005 election). It has serious backing in the territorial self-governments.

Democratic Party of Moldova - 13 seats
Led by Marian Lupu, parliamentary speaker during Communist rule, who broke away from the PCRM in June 2009 and who is regarded as a pro-European pragmatist favouring a foreign policy course balanced between East and West (neutrality, membership in the CIS, strategic partnership with Russia, and simultaneous aspirations to integration with the EU).
The DP has a social democratic programme, and is allegedly associated with the 'clan' of Petru Lucinschi, who was President of Moldova in 1996-2001.

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